Take Action in Virginia

Name: POSTCARDING w/DOLLY into Swing States
Start: 2024-07-03T17:00:00-04:00
End: 2024-07-03T19:00:00-04:00
Location: virtual

VA07 (Open) Spanberger (D), VA02 (Flip) Kiggans (R)

The Cook PVI (how partisan a congressional district or state is) for the state of Virginia is D+3. In 2023, Democrats managed to flip the VA legislature on the strength of abortion, which continues to be an issue for voters.

Two competitive House races have emerged in 2024. VA-07 (PVI of D+1 and rated Lean D), which is now open since the Democratic incumbent, Abigail Spanberger, is running for governor in 2025. Also VA-02 (PVI R+2, rated Lean R) is a potential flip. Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans unseated Elaine Luria in 2022. Former Navy surface warfare officer Missy Cotter Smasal is running as a Democrat. U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is also running, but it's considered a Solid Democratic seat.

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State	District	Incumbent	Party	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Lean D	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$2,574,831
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30			David Schweikert	$1,192,101
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30			Juan Ciscomani	$2,452,350
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$424,839	Scott Baugh	$1,903,809
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$1,150,422	John Duarte	$1,813,336
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$754,435	David Valadao	$1,640,960
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$3,047,188	Mike Garcia	$1,754,767
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$3,162,026	Ken Calvert	$2,639,377
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Lean R	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$195,382	Michelle Steel	$3,218,738
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$1,997,583
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Lean R	Jun-25			OPEN (Boebert)
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$1,526,492
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$2,157,618	Joseph McGraw	$325,191
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Lean D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$1,238,183
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Lean R	Jun-4			Zach Nunn	$1,847,579
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$2,156,439
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6			John James	$2,958,581
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$2,822,415
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Lean R	May-14	Tony Vargas	$1,641,255	Don Bacon	$1,727,525
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$2,179,266
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-4			Thomas Kean	$2,395,291
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$1,805,859
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$2,768,926
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Brandon Williams	$1,080,376
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25			Anthony DEsposito	$1,363,618
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-25			Mike Lawler	$3,022,485
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25			Marc Molinaro	$1,767,264
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$1,845,760
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Toss Up	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$1,893,847
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$1,649,815
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$1,601,364
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Lean R	May-21			Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$1,878,340
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$1,491,729
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$2,662,153
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$3,151,047
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Lean R	Apr-23			Scott Perry	$513,461
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$1,452,143
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-18
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18			Jen Kiggans	$1,785,014
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$3,028,214
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13	Derrick Van Orden	$1,946,820

Samasal has picked up some key endorsements before the June 18 primary, including: Spanberger, U.S. Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D), U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) and former Gov. Ralph Northam (D).

Issues that are likely to be flashpoints in the 2024 election are:

Reproductive Rights: The governance stakes have focused on reproductive rights, particularly Republican support for limits. The 2023 election showed broad support for abortion access.
Social Security and Medicare: These programs are a major point of contention between Democrats and Republicans.
Education: Republicans’s focus on targeting educational curriculum and parents’ rights to decisions made by schools. However, book-banning candidates fared poorly in 2023, so the tactic may backfire.
Culture Wars: Particularly those targeting the LGBTQ community, are also expected to be a major issue in the 2024 election for both parties.

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