The Together We Elect strategic analysis team identifies top Senate and House races that will determine which party controls Congress. We only pick districts we think your support can make a real difference. We prioritize races by both their potential win-ability (no lost causes please) as well as potential marginal impact (no shoe-ins either). Criteria used in selecting races include:
- Partisan lean of the district (post-redistricting) and trends in partisanship from 2012 – 2020
- Incumbency
- Congressional Election results in prior cycles
- Money raised
- Candidate Experience and Endorsements
Key Senate Races
Of the 33 Senate races this cycle, there are just nine of them that are competitive: four Democratic holds and five potential Republican flips. There are two other races that are often mentioned: Iowa and Missouri that look like pretty solid Republican holds at this point.
| State | Incumbent | PVI | Cook Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Kirsten Sinema (I) | R+2 | Tossup |
| West Virginia | Joe Manchin (D) | R+3 | Tossup |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | EVEN | Lean D |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey (D) | R+2 | Lean D |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | R+2 | Lean D |
| Michigan | Open (D) (Stabinow) | EVEN | Lean D |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | R+6 | Tossup |
| Montana | John Tester (D) | R+11 | Lean D |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (R) | R+5 | Likely R |
* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate
** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)
Key House Races
The current House breakdown is 220 Democrats vs 212 Republicans (Three vacancies – 2 D, 1 R). Of the 220 current Democratic members, 24 are retiring and 11 of which are in vulnerable districts. By comparison, just 11 House Republicans are retiring and none of them sit in competitive districts. Vulnerable seats exist all over the country and many states which didn’t receive much attention in 2020 will need focus in 2022: California, New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Virginia to name a few.
* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate
** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)
