Key Races in 2024

The Together We Elect strategic analysis team identifies top Senate and House races that will determine which party controls Congress.  We only pick districts we think your support can make a real difference.  We prioritize races by both their potential win-ability (no lost causes please) as well as potential  marginal impact (no shoe-ins either). Criteria used in selecting races include:

  • Partisan lean of the district (post-redistricting) and trends in partisanship from 2012 – 2020
  • Incumbency
  • Congressional Election results in prior cycles
  • Money raised
  • Candidate Experience and Endorsements

Key Senate Races

Of the 33 Senate races this cycle, there are just nine of them that are competitive: four Democratic holds and five potential Republican flips.  There are two other races that are often mentioned: Iowa and Missouri that look like pretty solid Republican holds at this point.

StateIncumbentPVICook Rating
ArizonaKirsten Sinema (I)R+2Tossup
West VirginiaJoe Manchin (D)R+3Tossup
NevadaJacky Rosen (D)EVENLean D
PennsylvaniaBob Casey (D)R+2Lean D
WisconsinTammy Baldwin (D)R+2Lean D
MichiganOpen (D) (Stabinow)EVENLean D
OhioSherrod Brown (D)R+6Tossup
MontanaJohn Tester (D)R+11Lean D
TexasTed Cruz (R)R+5Likely R

* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate

** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)

Key House Races

The current House breakdown is 220 Democrats vs 212 Republicans (Three vacancies – 2 D, 1 R). Of the 220 current Democratic members, 24 are retiring and 11 of which are in vulnerable districts. By comparison, just 11 House Republicans are retiring and none of them sit in competitive districts.  Vulnerable seats exist all over the country and many states which didn’t receive much attention in 2020 will need focus in 2022: California, New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Virginia to name a few.

StateDistrictIncumbentPVICook Rating
ArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2Tossup2-Aug
ArizonaAZ06Juan Ciscomani (R)R+3Tossup2-Aug
CaliforniaCA13John Duarte (R)D+4Tossup7-Jun
ColoradoCO08Yadira Caraveo (D)EVENTossup28-Jun
North CarolinaNC01Don Davis (D)D+2Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC13Wiley Nickel (D)R+2Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC14Jeff Jackson (D)D+6Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC06Kathy Manning (D)D+4Tossup17-May
New JerseyNJ07Thomas Kean Jr (R)R+1Tossup7-Jun
New MexicoNM02Gabe Vasquez (D)D+1Tossup7-Jun
NevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1Tossup14-Jun
New YorkNY04Anthony D'Esposito (R)D+5Tossup23-Aug
New YorkNY17Mike Lawler (R)D+3Tossup23-Aug
New YorkNY19Marc Molinaro (R)EVENTossup23-Aug
New YorkNY22Brandon Williams (R)D+1Tossup23-Aug
OhioOH01Greg Landsman (D)D+2Tossup3-May
OhioOH13Emilia Sykes (D)R+1Tossup3-May
OregonOR05Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)D+2Tossup17-May
PennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2Tossup17-May
PennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4Tossup17-May
WashingtonWA03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)R+5Tossup2-Aug

* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate

** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)