Post-Redistricting Strategy ’22

The outlook for the senate is clearer; it is not impacted by redistricting. With the current split of 50-50 between parties alignment (48 Democrats, 50 Republicans, and 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats), any net loss of a seat means losing the control of the Senate. 

Of the 35 seats that are up for elections in 2022, nine are in play. Five of the seats in play are currently held by Republicans – Wisconsin, Florida and the three seats open because incumbents are retiring in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Ohio. The other four seats in play are currently held by Democrats – New Hampshire and Nevada as well as the two seats which flipped in 2020’s special election and now are up again – Kelly in Arizona and Warnock in Georgia.  

Redistricted Breakdown of Congress: 

220 Democrat vs 215 Republican seats.

Democrats are expected to lose two districts based on redistricting alone

Cook Rating	Republican	Democrat
Solid	161	157
Likely	11	19
Lean	10	14
Tossups (incumbent party)	10.5	10.5
Estimates for MO, LA, FL	30	12
TOTAL	222.5	212.5

Bottom line: Out of the 37 seats in play, Democrats need to win 22 of them to keep the House. Or 16 of the 22 toss-ups.

Given the new landscape, we look for the most competitive districts where we should focus our efforts. As a reminder, we prioritize races by both their potential to win (no lost causes please) as well as our potential marginal impact (no shoe-ins either).  We pick only districts in which we think we can make a difference!  

What factors do we consider the most important? 

• The newly calculated Partisan Voting Indexes (PVI) which measures the voting pattern of the new districts based upon their prior voting patterns
• Strength of the candidates (or lack thereof especially in open seats) as measured by their resume, renown, and financial resources and for incumbents, their previous election results.
• The newly revised Cook and Sabato ratings
• Where our contribution is most likely to impact the race. What is clear is that for the House, we can no longer rely on results from prior elections because in so many key races the districts have shifted significantly and represent entirely new populations. This is why the new estimated PVI’s are so important in our analysis.

The weight given to the more dynamic factors (e.g. money raised and challenger landscape) will evolve, and we continue to watch and will revise our lists throughout the cycle. Filing deadlines are fast approaching in many states. By April 15, we have the candidate lists for approximately two thirds of the states, with six competitive states having filing dates extending into the summer. 

We analyzed the 393 districts whose maps are practically final (all but FL, LA,  MO). Of those, we identified the top 37 districts in play. Additionally, we marked another 13 as “to be watched.”

Some of the impact of redistricting is clear. For example, West Virginia lost a seat in the House, and since all its seats are held by Republicans, this results in a loss of a Republican seat. Another example is in Georgia. GA-06, currently held by Lucy MacBath (D), became a red district and is no longer even competitive so MacBath is now competing in the primary with Carolyn Bourdeaux in GA-07. That is therefore a clear loss of a D seat. We analyzed all the new districts and tallied the gains and losses for each party. The result is a net loss of two seats to the Democrats.

Thirty districts are heavily weighted to one party or another (Likely D or Likely R). Twenty four are rated Lean R or Lean D, and 21 are rated Toss-up.  The table to the right shows the Cook ratings for all remapped districts and how each is split among parties currently holding the seat. 

Bottom line: Out of the 37 seats in play, Democrats need to win 22 to keep the House. Or they need 16 of the 22 districts rated as Toss-up.

We will update our analysis when the remaining maps are finalized.

Redistricted Breakdown of Congress: 

220 Democrat vs 215 Republican seats

Democrats are expected to lose two districts based on redistricting alone.

Estimated Election results based on today’s Cook ratings:

Cook Rating	Republican	Democrat
Solid	161	157
Likely	11	19
Lean	10	14
Tossups (incumbent party)	10.5	10.5
Estimates for MO, LA, FL	30	12
TOTAL	222.5	212.5

If today’s Cook ratings materialized in November, Republicans would flip the House by four seats

Bottom line: Out of the 37 seats in play, Democrats need to win 22 of them to keep the House. Or 16 of the 22 toss-ups.