This map shows key states. Light orange states have at least one key House race. Darker orange indicates states with multiple House races or a Senate race. Light purple is a Presidential swing state (only). Dark Purple: Presidential swing and other key races. It deserves your strongest focus! Check out the tables below the map for details about each race.
Interactive Map
Presidential Swing States
With Biden’s approval numbers lower, many swing states he won in 2020 are listed as toss-ups this year.
| State | 2020 Winner | EC Votes | PVI | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Biden | 11 | R+2 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Nevada | Biden | 6 | R+1 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Pennsylvania | Biden | 19 | R+2 | Tossup | Lean D |
| Wisconsin | Biden | 10 | R+2 | Tossup | Tossup |
| Michigan | Biden | 15 | R+1 | Tossup | Lean D |
| Georgia | Biden | 16 | R+3 | Tossup | Tossup |
| North Carolina | Trump | 16 | R+3 | Lean R | Lean R |
Key Senate Races
There are just six competitive Senate races, all of which are currently held by Democrats. Texas (Ted Cruz) and Florida (Rick Scott) may come into play with the evolving abortion issue.
| State | Incumbent | PVI | Cook Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | OPEN -- (Sinema (I)) | R+2 | Tossup | Jul-30 | Ruben Gallego* | |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | EVEN | Lean D | Jun-11 | Jacky Rosen | |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey (D) | R+2 | Lean D | Apr-23 | Bob Casey | |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | R+2 | Lean D | Aug-06 | Tammy Baldwin | |
| Michigan | OPEN -- (Stabinow (D)) | EVEN | Lean D | Aug-06 | Elissa Slotkin* | |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | R+6 | Tossup | Mar-19 | Sherrod Brown | Bernie Moreno |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | R+11 | Lean D | Jun-04 | Jon Tester |
Key House Races
Going into November, Democrats will need to flip five seats to take control of the House. Competitive seats exist all over the country, many in states which won’t be central in the Presidential race. Focusing on the several toss-up races in both NY and CA is one strategy for flipping the House blue.
