Projected Key Races in 2024

The Together We Elect strategy team identifies top Senate and House races that will determine which party controls Congress.  We only pick races we think your support can make a real difference.

As it’s still quite early to analyze 2024, we base our current list on the Cook Political Report’s 2024 race ratings and present their list of most competitive races.  The Senate is a complete defense strategy — all competitive seats are held by Democrats.  The House is much more evenly split.

The map below shows key states. Light orange states have at least one key race. Darker orange indicates states with multiple House races or a Senate race. Check out the tables below the map for details about each race.

Interactive Map

AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY DC

Key Senate Races

Of the 33 Senate races this cycle, there are just seven competitive ones, all of which are currently held by Democrats. (All current Republican seats are rated likely or solid Republican).

StateIncumbentPVICook Rating
ArizonaKirsten Sinema (I)R+2Tossup
West VirginiaJoe Manchin (D)R+3Tossup
NevadaJacky Rosen (D)EVENLean D
PennsylvaniaBob Casey (D)R+2Lean D
WisconsinTammy Baldwin (D)R+2Lean D
MichiganOpen (D) (Stabinow)EVENLean D
OhioSherrod Brown (D)R+6Tossup
MontanaJohn Tester (D)R+11Lean D
TexasTed Cruz (R)R+5Likely R

Key House Races

The current House breakdown is 212 Democrats vs 222 Republicans (with one vacancy). Competitive seats exist all over the country, many in states which won’t be central in the Presidential race. Those states will need extra attention: California, New York, Ohio, New Jersey, Colorado and Washington to name a few.

StateDistrictIncumbentPVICook Rating
ArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2Tossup2-Aug
ArizonaAZ06Juan Ciscomani (R)R+3Tossup2-Aug
CaliforniaCA13John Duarte (R)D+4Tossup7-Jun
ColoradoCO08Yadira Caraveo (D)EVENTossup28-Jun
North CarolinaNC01Don Davis (D)D+2Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC13Wiley Nickel (D)R+2Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC14Jeff Jackson (D)D+6Tossup17-May
North CarolinaNC06Kathy Manning (D)D+4Tossup17-May
New JerseyNJ07Thomas Kean Jr (R)R+1Tossup7-Jun
New MexicoNM02Gabe Vasquez (D)D+1Tossup7-Jun
NevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1Tossup14-Jun
New YorkNY04Anthony D'Esposito (R)D+5Tossup23-Aug
New YorkNY17Mike Lawler (R)D+3Tossup23-Aug
New YorkNY19Marc Molinaro (R)EVENTossup23-Aug
New YorkNY22Brandon Williams (R)D+1Tossup23-Aug
OhioOH01Greg Landsman (D)D+2Tossup3-May
OhioOH13Emilia Sykes (D)R+1Tossup3-May
OregonOR05Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R)D+2Tossup17-May
PennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2Tossup17-May
PennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4Tossup17-May
WashingtonWA03Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)R+5Tossup2-Aug
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