Key Races in 2024

These are the Presidential, House and Senate races where your support can make a real difference

This map shows key states. Light orange states have at least one key House race. Darker orange indicates states with multiple House races or a Senate race. Light purple is a Presidential swing state (only). Dark Purple: Presidential swing and other key races. It deserves your strongest focus! Check out the tables below the map for details about each race.

Interactive Map

AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY DC

Interested in your local races?

Blue Voter Guide can help. Enter your address and it will give you the run-down.

Presidential Swing States

State2020 WinnerEC VotesPartisan LeanCook RatingSabato Rating
ArizonaBiden11R+2TossupTossup
NevadaBiden6R+1TossupTossup
PennsylvaniaBiden19R+2TossupTossup
WisconsinBiden10R+2TossupTossup
MichiganBiden15R+1TossupTossup
GeorgiaBiden16R+3TossupTossup
North CarolinaTrump16R+3TossupTossup

The Partisan Lean measures how partisan a state or congressional district is as compared to the nation as a whole, based on how that state or district voted in the previous two presidential elections.

Key Senate Races

StateIncumbentPartisan LeanCook RatingSabato RatingPrimary DateDemocratic CandidateRepublican Candidate
ArizonaOPEN -- (Sinema (I))R+2Lean DLean DJul-30Ruben GallegoKari Lake
NevadaJacky Rosen (D)EVENLean DLean DJun-11Jacky RosenSam Brown
PennsylvaniaBob Casey (D)R+2Lean DLean DApr-23Bob CaseyDave McCormick
WisconsinTammy Baldwin (D)R+2TossupLean DAug-13Tammy BaldwinEric Hovde
MichiganOPEN -- (Stabinow (D))EVENTossupLean DAug-06Elissa SlotkinMike Rogers
OhioSherrod Brown (D)R+6TossupTossupMar-19Sherrod BrownBernie Moreno
MontanaJon Tester (D)R+11Lean RLean RJun-04Jon TesterTim Sheehy
NebraskaDeb Fischer (R)R+13Likely RLikely RMay-14Dan Osborn (Ind)Deb Fischer

There are just eight competitive Senate races, six of which are currently held by Democrats, one currently held by a Republican, and the other currently held by Krysten Sinema (I) who is not seeking reelection. Michigan is also an open seat as Senator Debbie Stabinow (D) is retiring. Texas (Ted Cruz) and Florida (Rick Scott) may come into play with the evolving abortion issue. In Nebraska, Democrats won’t pick up a seat, but Republicans may lose one if the independent candidate wins, a real possibility.

Key House Races

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanParty in PowerCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaR+8DTossupAug-20Mary Peltola$3,338,609Multiple$840,000
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertR+2RToss UpJul-30Amish Shah$216,508David Schweikert$1,548,761 Yes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniR+3RToss UpJul-30Kirsten Engel$3,197,698 Juan Ciscomani$2,667,947
CaliforniaCA-47OPEN (Porter)D+3DLean DMar-5David Min$1,525,657 Scott Baugh$2,277,891 Yes
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteD+4RToss UpMar-5Adam Gray$1,816,564 John Duarte$2,078,186 Yes
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoD+5RToss UpMar-5Rudy Salas$1,741,508 David Valadao$2,000,244 Yes
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaD+4RToss UpMar-5George Whitesides$3,879,062 Mike Garcia$2,226,582
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertR+3RToss UpMar-5Will Rollins$4,747,346 Ken Calvert$3,618,194
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelD+2RTossupMar-5Derek Tran$1,156,780 Michelle Steel$3,792,958
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoEVENDToss UpJun-25Yadira Caraveo$3,464,254 Gabe Evans$532,844
ColoradoCO-03OPEN (Boebert)R+7RLean RJun-25Adam Frisch$3,924,268 Jeff Hurd$156,577
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesD+3DLean DAug-13Jahana Hayes$2,065,380 George Logan$1,013,129
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenD+2DLean DMar-19Eric Sorensen$2,590,786 Joseph McGraw$475,444
IndianaIN-01Frank MrvanD+3DLean DMay-7Frank Mrvan$1,472,994 Randy Niemeyer$446,529
IowaIA-03Zach NunnR+3RLean RJun-4Lanon Baccam$1,594,015 Zach Nunn$2,439,075
MaineME-02Jared GoldenR+6DToss UpJun-11Jared Golden$3,289,109 Austin Theriault$898,582
MichiganMI-07OPEN (Slotkin)R+2DToss UpAug-6Curtis Hertel$3,280,946Tom Barrett$1,215,354
MichiganMI-08OPEN (Kildee)R+1DToss UpAug-6Kristen McDonald Rivet$805,117Paul Junge$332,295
MichiganMI-10John JamesR+3RLean RAug-6Carl Marlinga$104,385John James$4,016,408
MinnesotaMN-02Angie CraigD+1DLean DAug-13Angie Craig$3,833,263 Joe Teirab$813,428
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconEVENRTossupMay-14Tony Vargas$2,524,082 Don Bacon$2,215,340
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeD+1DLean DJun-11Susie Lee$2,989,768 Drew Johnson$49,936
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanR+1RLean RJun-4Sue Altman$2,223,330 Thomas Kean$3,005,363
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezD+1DToss UpJun-4Gabe Vasquez$2,702,018 Yvette Herrell$1,354,939
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanD+2DLean DJun-25Pat Ryan$3,544,699 Alison Esposito$729,460
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsD+3RLean DJun-25John Mannion$340,531 Brandon Williams$1,363,587
New YorkNY-04Anthony DEspositoD+5RToss UpJun-25Laura Gillen$2,518,692 Anthony DEsposito$2,171,544
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerD+3RToss UpJun-25Mondaire Jones$4,312,537 Mike Lawler$3,930,456
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroR+1RToss UpJun-25Josh Riley$4,001,183 Marc Molinaro$2,260,325
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisR+1DToss UpMar-5Don Davis$2,621,138 Laurie Buckhout$600,021
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturR+3DLean DMar-19Marcy Kaptur$2,636,320 Derek Merrin$408,073
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesR+1DToss UpMar-19Emilia Sykes$2,369,256 Kevin Coughlin$389,218
OregonOR-06Andrea SalinasD+4DLean DMay-21Andrea Salinas$2,169,080 Mike Erickson$234,144
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerD+2RTossupMay-21Janelle Bynum$1,087,862 Lori Chavez-DeRemer$2,409,555
PennsylvaniaPA-17Chris DeluzioEVENDLean DApr-23Chris Deluzio$1,871,536 Rob Mercuri$801,259
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildR+2DToss UpApr-23Susan Wild$3,855,492 Ryan MacKenzie$373,255
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightR+4DToss UpApr-23Matt Cartwright$4,538,774 Robert Bresnahan$1,225,264
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryR+5RLean RApr-23Janelle Stelson$1,115,431 Scott Perry$788,823
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezD+9DLean DMay-28Vicente Gonzalez$1,679,288 Mayra Flores$1,093,137
VirginiaVA-07OPEN (Spanberger)D+1DTossupJun-18Eugene Vindman$2,284,458 Derrick Anderson$460,802
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansR+2RLean RJun-18Missy Cotter Smasal$584,974 Jen Kiggans$2,471,942
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezR+5DToss UpAug-6Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$3,825,433 Joe Kent$585,494
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenR+4RLean RAug-13Rebecca Cooke$1,050,132Derrick Van Orden$2,383,946

Going into November, Democrats will need to flip five seats to take control of the House. Competitive seats exist all over the country, many in states which won’t be central in the Presidential race. Focusing on the several toss-up races in both NY and CA is one strategy for flipping the House blue.

Menu