Senate (Open), AZ-01 (Flip - Schweikert), AZ-06 (Flip - Ciscomani)
Ruben Gallego, who represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional district in Congress, won the Democratic primary to run for the open Senate seat against election-ldenying but high-profile Republican Kari Lake. Gallego has held a strong lead in key polls, but the Trump-backed Lake has enjoyed high yield fundraisers at Mar-a-Lago. In House races, two districts are ripe for flips: In AZ-1, Dr. Amish Shah, an emergency room physician who has served for five years in the Arizona legislature, will take on the Republican incumbent. In AZ-6, environmental attorney and former State Senator Kirsten Engel is again mounting a strong campaign against the one-term Republican incumbent, whom she nearly defeated in 2022. [Read More Below]
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | OPEN -- (Sinema (I)) | R+2 | Lean D | Lean D | Jul-30 | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | EVEN | Lean D | Lean D | Jun-11 | Jacky Rosen | Sam Brown |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey (D) | R+2 | Tossup | Lean D | Apr-23 | Bob Casey | Dave McCormick |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | R+2 | Tossup | Lean D | Aug-13 | Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde |
| Michigan | OPEN -- (Stabinow (D)) | EVEN | Tossup | Lean D | Aug-06 | Elissa Slotkin | Mike Rogers |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | R+6 | Tossup | Tossup | Mar-19 | Sherrod Brown | Bernie Moreno |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | R+11 | Lean R | Lean R | Jun-04 | Jon Tester | Tim Sheehy |
| Nebraska | Deb Fischer (R) | R+13 | Lean R | Lean R | May-14 | Dan Osborn (Ind) | Deb Fischer |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (R) | R+5 | Lean R | Likely R | Mar-05 | Colin Allred | Ted Cruz |
A state that turned purple when it delivered its 11 electoral votes to Biden-Harris in 2020, Arizona is fueled by blue energy at every level. Overturning the 1864 abortion ban law was a big first step. Now abortion rights activists have put the issue on the November ballot. In the state legislature itself, just two additional Democratic wins in the House and two in the Senate will claim the majority.
Arizona boasts two of the fastest growing state legislative districts in the country. Most newcomers are young, professional, and Democratic. Meanwhile, AZ State Attorney General Kris Mayes’ investigation of the 2020 fake electors tied to Trump has led to Grand Jury charges.
Kari Lake, the failed gubernatorial candidate, and a bevy of other MAGA folk are roiling on the right while Volunteer Blue, along with its partners like Activate America and Swing Left, have targeted two currently Republican held House seats to flip—the 1st Congressional district, which includes Scottsdale, and the 6th anchored in Tucson.
The strategy in Arizona is to boost voter registration everywhere and reach out to low-propensity independent and Democratic voters throughout the state to increase voter turnout.
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Join Ann's weekly virtual postcarding party to write with like-minded folks, make new friends and chat while registering Democrats one postcard at a time! This party will not include a...
Why host a house party? Yes, door knocks, phone banks, postcards, rallies are all important organizing tools. But in 2025-26, we need to do something more and different to win. House...
