Take Action in Virginia

VA02 (Flip) Kiggans (R), VA07 (Hold) Vindman (D)

Virginia is cementing itself as a midterms bellwether again. Democrats are capitalizing on the anti-Trump sentiment due to cuts in federal services, axing of federal workers, and upcoming pain likely at empty ports due to draconian tariffs.

The Virginia governor’s race, November 2025, pits former U.S. Representative Abigail Spanberger, D, against Republican Lt.Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. One U.S. House district is shaping up as a possible flip – VA-02, where Republican incumbent Jennifer Kiggans, VA-02, has ducked meetings with constituents who want to voice their concerns about cuts affected by the administration’s budget.

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

StateDistrictIncumbentParty in PowerPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDem CandidateRep Candidate
ArizonaAZ-01OPEN (David Schweikert)RepublicanR+1Toss UpAugust 4, 2026David SchweikertYes
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRepublicanEVENToss UpAugust 4, 2026Juan CiscomaniYes
CaliforniaCA-09Josh HarderDemocraticD+1Lean DJune 2, 2026Josh Harder
CaliforniaCA-13Adam GrayDemocraticR+1Toss UpJune 2, 2026Adam Gray
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRepublicanR+1Lean RJune 2, 2026David ValadaoYes
CaliforniaCA-27George WhitesidesDemocraticD+3Lean DJune 2, 2026George Whitesides
CaliforniaCA-40Young KimRepublicanR+1Lean RJune 2, 2026Young KimYes
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertRepublicanR+2Lean RJune 2, 2026Ken CalvertYes
CaliforniaCA-45Derek TranDemocraticD+1Toss UpJune 2, 2026Derek Tran
CaliforniaCA-47David MinDemocraticD+3Lean DJune 2, 2026David Min
ColoradoCO-08Gabe EvansRepublicanEVENToss UpJune 2, 2026Gabe EvansYes
FloridaFL-23Jared MoskowitzDemocraticD+2Lean DAugust 18, 2026Jared Moskowitz
IowaIA-01Mariannette Miller-MeeksRepublicanR+4Toss UpJune 2, 2026Mariannette Miller-Meeks
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRepublicanR+2Lean RJune 2, 2026Zach Nunn
MaineME-02Jared GoldenDemocraticR+4Toss UpJun-09-2026Jared Golden
MichiganMI-07Tom BarrettRepublicanEVENToss UpAugust 4, 2026Tom Barrett
MichiganMI-08Kristen McDonald RivetDemocraticR+1Lean DAugust 4, 2026Kristen McDonald Rivet
MichiganMI-10OPEN (John James)RepublicanR+3Lean RAugust 4, 2026
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDemocraticR+1Likely RMarch 3, 2026Don Davis
NebraskaNE-02OPEN (Don Bacon)RepublicanD+3Lean DMay 12, 2026
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanRepublicanEVENLean RJune 2, 2026Thomas Kean
New JerseyNJ-09Nellie PouDemocraticD+2Lean DJune 2, 2026Nellie Pou
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDemocraticEVENToss UpJune 2, 2026Gabe Vasquez
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDemocraticD+1Lean DJune 9, 2026Susie Lee
New YorkNY-03Tom SuozziDemocraticEVENLean DJune 23, 2026Tom Suozzi
New YorkNY-04Laura GillenDemocraticD+2Toss UpJune 23, 2026Laura Gillen
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRepublicanD+1Lean RJune 23, 2026Mike Lawler
New YorkNY-19Josh RileyDemocraticD+1Lean DJune 23, 2026Josh Riley
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturDemocraticR+3Toss UpMay 5, 2026Marcy Kaptur
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesDemocraticEVENToss UpMay 5, 2026Emilia Sykes
OregonOR-05Janelle BynumDemocraticD+4Likely DMay 19, 2026Janelle Bynum
PennsylvaniaPA-07Ryan MacKenzieRepublicanR+1Toss UpMay 19, 2026Ryan MacKenzie
PennsylvaniaPA-08Rob BresnahanRepublicanR+4Lean RMay 19, 2026Rob Bresnahan
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryRepublicanR+3Toss UpMay 19, 2026Scott Perry
TexasTX-28Henry CuellarDemocraticR+2Toss UpMarch 3, 2026Henry Cuellar
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezDemocraticEVENLean RMarch 3, 2026Vicente Gonzalez
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRepublicanEVENLean RJune 16, 2026Jen Kiggans
VirginiaVA-07Eugene VindmanDemocraticD+2Lean DJune 16, 2026Eugene Vindman
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDemocraticR+2Toss UpAugust 4, 2026Marie Gluesenkamp Perez
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRepublicanR+3Toss UpAugust 11, 2026Derrick Van Orden
  • Republican Kiggans also has taken heat for her defense of tariffs and other Trump executive orders. Cook deems the race is Lean Republican, but it’s a district that has switched parties twice in the past six years.  Democrats are targeting that race in the hopes that the backlash against Trump’s unpopular cuts and policies could swing the district to them.
  • In VA-07, Incumbent Democrat Eugene Vindman who had won his seat when Spanberger left Congress, is serving his first term. He was in the Army from 1997 to 2022 and earned a law degree from the University of Georgia School of Law in 2009.
  • Gubernatorial candidate Spanberger, a former CIA office, served three terms in Congress. Republican Earle-Sears is a former U.S. Marine whose only elected post is her present one.
  • In the Virginia House of Delegates, Democrats hold a razor-thin majority. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is making a seven-figure investment in races there. i Four Republican delegates are not seeking re-election; two in districts formerly held by Democrats. Electing a Democratic governor and expanding the Democratic control of the state legislature will set the tone for 2026 and beyond.

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