Take Action in Virginia

Name: VA State The Union Meeting – Open to All
Start: 2025-07-09T20:00:00-04:00
End: 2025-07-09T21:00:00-04:00
Location: virtual

VA07 (Open) Spanberger (D), VA02 (Flip) Kiggans (R)

The Cook PVI (how partisan a congressional district or state is) for the state of Virginia is D+3. In 2023, Democrats managed to flip the VA legislature on the strength of abortion, which continues to be an issue for voters.

Two competitive House races have emerged in 2024. VA-07 (PVI of D+1 and rated Lean D), which is now open since the Democratic incumbent, Abigail Spanberger, is running for governor in 2025. Also VA-02 (PVI R+2, rated Lean R) is a potential flip. Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans unseated Elaine Luria in 2022. Former Navy surface warfare officer Missy Cotter Smasal is running as a Democrat. U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is also running, but it's considered a Solid Democratic seat.

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State	District	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Party in Power	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)	Fundraising Target
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Tossup	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$11,383,692	Multiple	N/A
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Amish Shah	$5,499,151	David Schweikert	$3,806,313	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Kirsten Engel	$7,713,062	Juan Ciscomani	$6,281,198
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$6,121,731	Scott Baugh	$4,134,243	Yes
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$5,416,262	John Duarte	$4,147,092	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$5,772,500	David Valadao	$4,605,340	Yes
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$9,258,624	Mike Garcia	$5,978,261
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$11,510,839	Ken Calvert	$7,531,776
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Tossup	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$5,000,888	Michelle Steel	$9,441,899
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$7,303,139	Gabe Evans	$2,297,545
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Likely R	Jun-25	Adam Frisch	$16,502,296	Jeff Hurd	$2,410,147
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$3,966,896	George Logan	$2,633,764
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Likely D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$4,721,699	Joseph McGraw	$1,385,103
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Likely D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$3,055,858	Randy Niemeyer	$1,024,067
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-4	Lanon Baccam	$4,826,753	Zach Nunn	$5,227,097
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$7,062,983	Austin Theriault	$3,209,611
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Curtis Hertel	$7,045,643	Tom Barrett	$4,622,111
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Kristen McDonald Rivet	$5,255,715	Paul Junge	$5,114,278
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6	Carl Marlinga	$2,596,072	John James	$8,287,451
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$7,852,933	Joe Teirab	$2,966,229
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Tossup	May-14	Tony Vargas	$6,746,766	Don Bacon	$5,944,820
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$5,667,750	Drew Johnson	$1,296,245
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Sue Altman	$5,638,730	Thomas Kean	$5,558,101
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$6,483,548	Yvette Herrell	$3,958,577
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$7,543,210	Alison Esposito	$2,176,423
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	R	Lean D	Jun-25	John Mannion	$3,555,502	Brandon Williams	$3,938,363
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Laura Gillen	$6,127,580	Anthony DEsposito	$4,419,902
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Lean R	Jun-25	Mondaire Jones	$9,057,157	Mike Lawler	$7,777,943
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Josh Riley	$8,760,534	Marc Molinaro	$5,119,951
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$5,599,492	Laurie Buckhout	$4,279,685
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$4,483,047	Derek Merrin	$1,480,664
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$4,949,666	Kevin Coughlin	$1,443,635
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$5,007,770	Mike Erickson	$544,612
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Tossup	May-21	Janelle Bynum	$6,436,776	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$5,698,142
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$4,700,672	Rob Mercuri	$1,681,625
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$8,160,815	Ryan MacKenzie	$1,507,653
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$8,124,143	Robert Bresnahan	$4,124,363
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Toss Up	Apr-23	Janelle Stelson	$5,379,810	Scott Perry	$3,862,884
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$2,853,782	Mayra Flores	$6,306,400
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Tossup	Jun-18	Eugene Vindman	$15,686,040	Derrick Anderson	$2,851,582
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18	Missy Cotter Smasal	$2,784,150	Jen Kiggans	$5,969,764
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$10,699,161	Joe Kent	$2,311,352
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13	Rebecca Cooke	$5,300,456	Derrick Van Orden	$6,627,347

Samasal has picked up some key endorsements before the June 18 primary, including: Spanberger, U.S. Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D), U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) and former Gov. Ralph Northam (D).

Issues that are likely to be flashpoints in the 2024 election are:

Reproductive Rights: The governance stakes have focused on reproductive rights, particularly Republican support for limits. The 2023 election showed broad support for abortion access.
Social Security and Medicare: These programs are a major point of contention between Democrats and Republicans.
Education: Republicans’s focus on targeting educational curriculum and parents’ rights to decisions made by schools. However, book-banning candidates fared poorly in 2023, so the tactic may backfire.
Culture Wars: Particularly those targeting the LGBTQ community, are also expected to be a major issue in the 2024 election for both parties.

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