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VA07 (Open) Spanberger (D), VA02 (Flip) Kiggans (R)

The Cook PVI (how partisan a congressional district or state is) for the state of Virginia is D+3. In 2023, Democrats managed to flip the VA legislature on the strength of abortion, which continues to be an issue for voters.

Two competitive House races have emerged in 2024. VA-07 (PVI of D+1 and rated Lean D), which is now open since the Democratic incumbent, Abigail Spanberger, is running for governor in 2025. Also VA-02 (PVI R+2, rated Lean R) is a potential flip. Republican incumbent Jen Kiggans unseated Elaine Luria in 2022. Former Navy surface warfare officer Missy Cotter Smasal is running as a Democrat. U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is also running, but it's considered a Solid Democratic seat.

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StateDistrictIncumbentPartyPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaDR+8Lean D20-AugMary Peltola$1,774,747
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertRR+2Toss Up30-JulDavid Schweikert$901,940
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRR+3Toss Up30-JulJuan Ciscomani$2,130,200
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteRD+4Toss Up5-MarAdam Gray$468,385John Duarte$1,487,119
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRD+5Toss Up5-MarRudy Salas$122,207David Valadao$1,323,307
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaRD+4Toss Up5-MarGeorge Whitesides$2,508,524Mike Garcia$1,560,751
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertRR+3Toss Up5-MarWill Rollins$2,424,885Ken Calvert$2,334,274
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelRD+2Lean R5-MarDerek Tran$66,630Michelle Steel$2,932,122
CaliforniaCA-47Open (Porter)DD+3Lean D5-MarDavid Min$224,079Scott Baugh$1,707,928
ColoradoCO-03Open (Boebert)RR+7Lean R25-Jun
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoDEVENToss Up25-JunYadira Caraveo$1,359,808
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesDD+3Lean D13-AugJahana Hayes$1,030,642
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRR+3Lean R4-JunZach Nunn$1,594,585
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenDD+2Lean D19-MarEric Sorensen$1,631,531Joe McGraw$218,150
IndianaIN-01Frank MrvanDD+3Lean D7-MayFrank Mrvan$823,242
MaineME-02Jared GoldenDR+6Toss Up11-JunJared Golden$1,436,515
MichiganMI-07Open (Slotkin)DR+2Toss Up6-Aug
MichiganMI-08Open (Kildee)DR+1Toss Up6-Aug
MichiganMI-10John JamesRR+3Lean R6-AugJohn James$2,346,810
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDR+1Toss Up5-MarDon Davis$961,681Laurie Buckhout$314,724
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconREVENLean R14-MayDon Bacon$1,547,517
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanRR+1Toss Up4-JunThomas Kean$2,110,338
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDD+1Toss Up4-JunGabe Vasquez$1,247,093
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDD+1Lean D11-JunSusie Lee$1,584,749
New YorkNY-04Anthony DEspositoRD+5Toss Up25-JunAnthony DEsposito$1,247,942
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRD+3Toss Up25-JunMike Lawler$2,500,120
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanDD+2Lean D25-JunPat Ryan$2,211,915
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroRR+1Toss Up25-JunMarc Molinaro$1,618,917
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsRD+3Lean D25-JunBrandon Williams$913,071
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturDR+3Toss Up19-MarMarcy Kaptur$1,324,671
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesDR+1Toss Up19-MarEmilia Sykes$1,112,476Kevin Coughlin$248,119
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerRD+2Toss Up21-MayLori Chavez-DeRemer$1,608,022
OregonOR-06Andrea SalinasDD+4Lean D21-MayAndrea Salinas$1,097,894
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildDR+2Toss Up23-AprSusan Wild$1,578,262
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightDR+4Toss Up23-AprMatt Cartwright$2,012,463
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryRR+5Lean R23-AprScott Perry$547,159
PennsylvaniaPA-17Chris DeluzioDEVENLean D23-AprChris Deluzio$986,156
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezDD+9Lean D28-MayVicente Gonzalez$1,208,034
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRR+2Lean R18-JunJen Kiggans$1,504,729
VirginiaVA-07Open (Spanberger)DD+1Lean D18-Jun
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDR+5Toss Up6-AugMarie Gluesenkamp Perez$2,181,055
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRR+4Lean R13-AugDerrick Van Orden$1,617,321

Samasal has picked up some key endorsements before the June 18 primary, including: Spanberger, U.S. Rep. Jennifer McClellan (D), U.S. Rep. Jennifer Wexton (D) and former Gov. Ralph Northam (D).

Issues that are likely to be flashpoints in the 2024 election are:

  • Reproductive Rights: The governance stakes have focused on reproductive rights, particularly Republican support for limits. The 2023 election showed broad support for abortion access.
  • Social Security and Medicare: These programs are a major point of contention between Democrats and Republicans.
  • Education: Republicans’s focus on targeting educational curriculum and parents’ rights to decisions made by schools. However, book-banning candidates fared poorly in 2023, so the tactic may backfire.
  • Culture Wars: Particularly those targeting the LGBTQ community, are also expected to be a major issue in the 2024 election for both parties.
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