Take Action Arizona

Name: California Battleground Text Bank
Start: 2024-09-20T15:00:00-04:00
End: 2024-09-20T16:30:00-04:00
Location: virtual

Senate (Open), AZ-01 (Flip - Schweikert), AZ-06 (Flip - Ciscomani)

Ruben Gallego, who represents Arizona’s 3rd Congressional district in Congress, won the Democratic primary to run for the open Senate seat against election-ldenying but high-profile Republican Kari Lake. Gallego has held a strong lead in key polls, but the Trump-backed Lake has enjoyed high yield fundraisers at Mar-a-Lago.

In House races, two districts are ripe for flips: In AZ-1, Dr. Amish Shah, an emergency room physician who has served for five years in the Arizona legislature, will take on the Republican incumbent. In AZ-6, environmental attorney and former State Senator Kirsten Engel is again mounting a strong campaign against the one-term Republican incumbent, whom she nearly defeated in 2022.
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SENATE RACE

State	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Arizona	OPEN -- (Sinema (I))	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Jul-30	Ruben Gallego	Kari Lake
Nevada	Jacky Rosen (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Lean D	Jun-11	Jacky Rosen	Sam Brown
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey (D)	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Apr-23	Bob Casey	Dave McCormick
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin (D)	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Aug-13	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde
Michigan	OPEN -- (Stabinow (D))	EVEN	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-06	Elissa Slotkin	Mike Rogers
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (D)	R+6	Tossup	Tossup	Mar-19	Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno
Montana	Jon Tester (D)	R+11	Tossup	Tossup	Jun-04	Jon Tester	Tim Sheehy

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

State	District	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Party in Power	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)	Fundraising Target
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Lean D	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$3,338,609	Multiple	$840,000
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Amish Shah	$216,508	David Schweikert	$1,548,761	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Kirsten Engel	$3,197,698	Juan Ciscomani	$2,667,947
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$1,525,657	Scott Baugh	$2,277,891	Yes
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$1,816,564	John Duarte	$2,078,186	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$1,741,508	David Valadao	$2,000,244	Yes
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$3,879,062	Mike Garcia	$2,226,582
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$4,747,346	Ken Calvert	$3,618,194
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Lean R	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$1,156,780	Michelle Steel	$3,792,958
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$3,464,254	Gabe Evans	$532,844
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Lean R	Jun-25	Adam Frisch	$3,924,268	Jeff Hurd	$156,577
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$2,065,380	George Logan	$1,013,129
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$2,590,786	Joseph McGraw	$475,444
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Lean D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$1,472,994	Randy Niemeyer	$446,529
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Lanon Baccam	$1,594,015	Zach Nunn	$2,439,075
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$3,289,109	Austin Theriault	$898,582
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Curtis Hertel	$3,280,946	Tom Barrett	$1,215,354
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Kristen McDonald Rivet	$805,117	Paul Junge	$332,295
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6	Carl Marlinga	$104,385	John James	$4,016,408
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$3,833,263	Joe Teirab	$813,428
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Lean R	May-14	Tony Vargas	$2,524,082	Don Bacon	$2,215,340
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$2,989,768	Drew Johnson	$49,936
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-4	Sue Altman	$2,223,330	Thomas Kean	$3,005,363
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$2,702,018	Yvette Herrell	$1,354,939
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$3,544,699	Alison Esposito	$729,460
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	R	Lean D	Jun-25	John Mannion	$340,531	Brandon Williams	$1,363,587
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Laura Gillen	$2,518,692	Anthony DEsposito	$2,171,544
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Mondaire Jones	$4,312,537	Mike Lawler	$3,930,456
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Josh Riley	$4,001,183	Marc Molinaro	$2,260,325
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$2,621,138	Laurie Buckhout	$600,021
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Toss Up	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$2,636,320	Derek Merrin	$408,073
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$2,369,256	Kevin Coughlin	$389,218
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$2,169,080	Mike Erickson	$234,144
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Tossup	May-21	Janelle Bynum	$1,087,862	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$2,409,555
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$1,871,536	Rob Mercuri	$801,259
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$3,855,492	Ryan MacKenzie	$373,255
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$4,538,774	Robert Bresnahan	$1,225,264
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Lean R	Apr-23	Janelle Stelson	$1,115,431	Scott Perry	$788,823
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$1,679,288	Mayra Flores	$1,093,137
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-18	Eugene Vindman	$2,284,458	Derrick Anderson	$460,802
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18	Missy Cotter Smasal	$584,974	Jen Kiggans	$2,471,942
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$3,825,433	Joe Kent	$585,494
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13	Rebecca Cooke	$1,050,132	Derrick Van Orden	$2,383,946

A state that turned purple when it delivered its 11 electoral votes to Biden-Harris in 2020, Arizona is fueled by blue energy at every level. Overturning the 1864 abortion ban law was a big first step. Now abortion rights activists have put the issue on the November ballot. In the state legislature itself, just two additional Democratic wins in the House and two in the Senate will claim the majority.

Arizona boasts two of the fastest growing state legislative districts in the country. Most newcomers are young, professional, and Democratic. Meanwhile, AZ State Attorney General Kris Mayes’ investigation of the 2020 fake electors tied to Trump has led to Grand Jury charges.

Kari Lake, the failed gubernatorial candidate, and a bevy of other MAGA folk are roiling on the right while Volunteer Blue, along with its partners like Activate America and Swing Left, have targeted two currently Republican held House seats to flip—the 1st Congressional district, which includes Scottsdale, and the 6th anchored in Tucson.

The strategy in Arizona is to boost voter registration everywhere and reach out to low-propensity independent and Democratic voters throughout the state to increase voter turnout.

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