Take Action Arizona

Senate (Kelly), AZ-01 (Hodge), AZ-02 (O'Halleran), AZ-04 (Stanton), AZ-06 (Engel)

Arizona delivered wins for Democrats in 2020 with the election of Sen. Mark Kelly and 11 electoral votes for Biden/Harris. In the midterm elections, Kelly has the good fortune of running as an incumbent, and te race has been upgraded to Lean D. Still, the GOP is targeting him as a possible flip. Kelly has raised substantial funds, and the grassroots support of Mission for Arizona, an ally of Together We Elect, is boosting his chances, along with U.S. House candidates and down-ballot races. Kelly faces Republican Blake Masters, whose campaign ads have mocked Native Americans and whose antisemitic and racist statements are becoming legendary.

Still, a tough redistricting map, which caused legislators to switch districts, as well as new voter registration laws could spell trouble for Democrats here.

In AZ-01, Democrat Jevin Hodge running for an open seat against Republican David Schweikert in November. Redistricting thrust Schweikert, current AZ-06 congressman, in the new AZ-01, which was rated Lean R but is now a Tossup. The redrawn 1st district is more competitive for Democrats, and Schweikert spent considerable cash in the primary.

Incumbent U.S. Rep. Tom O’Halleran is facing a tough race in his new district, AZ-02, because redistricting made it considerably more red. It was rated Lilely R. but has been upgrded to Lean R by Cook Political Report. Trump would have won the new district by 8 points. Blue Dog Democrat O’Halleran will take on Republican Eli Crane, a Navy veteran who has never held office. Crane was a featured speaker last year at a rally protesting the “political prisoners” of the Jan. 6 insurrection and supports the Big Lie.

AZ-04 has incumbent U.S. Rep Greg Stanton facing Kelly Cooper, who won in a close Republican primary. Stanton, who currently represents AZ-06, raised almost double the campaign funds than Cooper, a restaurant owner and political neophyte. Stanton had served as mayor of Phoenix.

The seat in AZ-06 is open because of redistricting. Kirsten Engel defeated two other Democrats in the primary to vie against Republican Juan Ciscomani. Engel, a former state senator, graduated with honors from Brown University and Northwestern University’s School of Law before working for the Massachusetts Office of Attorney General and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Ciscomani, who had worked at the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, is an ardent Second Amendment supporter; the father of six is anti-abortion.

StateIncumbentPVICook RatingSabato RatingDem CandidateRep Candidate
2-AugArizonaMark Kelly (D)R+2TossupTossupMark Kelly ($37,693,842)Blake Masters ($7,130,498) $37,693,842 $7,130,498
24-MayGeorgiaRaphael Warnock (D)R+3TossupTossupRaphael Warnock ($70,583,196)Herschel Walker ($14,943,031) $70,583,196 $14,943,031
14-JunNevadaCatherine Cortez Masto (D)EVENTossupTossupCatherine Cortez Masto ($18,245,498)Adam Laxalt ($5,506,106) $18,245,498 $5,506,106
13-SepNew HampshireMaggie Hassan (D)EVENLean DLean DMaggie Hassan ($15,978,865)NA $15,978,865
17-MayPennsylvaniaOpen (R)R+2Lean DTossupJohn Fetterman ($15,099,876)Mehmet Oz ($19,369,709) $15,099,876 $19,369,709
9-AugWisconsinRon Johnson (R)R+2TossupLean RMandela Barnes ($4,642,453)Ron Johnson ($10,177,730) $4,642,453 $10,177,730
17-MayNorth CarolinaOpen (R)EVENLean RLean RCheri Beasley ($8,635,735)Theodore P Budd ($11,649,582) $8,635,735 $11,649,582
3-MayOhioOpen (R)R+6Lean RLean RTimothy Ryan ($11,833,332)J D Vance ($13,515,441) $11,833,332 $13,515,441
23-AugFloridaMarco Rubio (R)R+3Lean RLikely RVal Demings ($30,386,818)Marco Rubio ($23,537,885) $30,386,818 $23,537,885
StateDistrictIncumbentPVICook RatingDem CandidateRep CandidateCanvassing
AlaskaAKALMary Peltola (Special Election)R+8TossupTossupMary PeltolaMary PeltolaSarah Palin
ArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2Lean RLean R2-AugJevin D Hodge ($706,318)David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
ArizonaAZ02Tom O'Halleran (D)R+6Likely RLean RTom O'HalleranEli Crane (R)
ArizonaAZ04Greg Stanton (D)D+2Lean DLean D2-AugGreg Stanton ($2,029,623)Kelly Cooper ($94,086)
ArizonaAZ06Open (D)R+3Lean RLean R2-AugKirsten Engel ($1,041,479)Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
CaliforniaCA09Josh Harder (D)D+5Lean DLean D7-JunJosh Harder ($4,233,777)Thomas Patti ($498,400)
CaliforniaCA13Open (D)D+4TossupTossup7-JunAdam C. Gray ($664,425)John S Duarte ($234,450)
CaliforniaCA22David Valadao (R)D+5TossupTossup7-JunRudy Salas ($460,158)David Valadao ($1,752,035)
CaliforniaCA27Mike Garcia (R)D+4TossupTossup7-JunChristy Smith ($830,862)Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)
CaliforniaCA45Michelle Steel (R)D+2Lean RLean R7-JunJay Chen ($1,964,097)Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)
CaliforniaCA47Katie Porter (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunKatie Porter ($13,268,126)Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)
CaliforniaCA49Mike Levin (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunMike Levin ($2,594,411)Brian L Maryott ($774,200)
ColoradoCO08New Seat (N)EVENTossupLean R28-JunYadira Caraveo ($567,794)Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
ConnecticutCT05Jahana Hayes (D)D+3Lean DLean D9-AugJahana Hayes ($1,112,088)George S Logan ($375,091)
IowaIA03Cindy Axne (D)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunCindy AxneZach Nunn ($695,573)
IllinoisIL13Open (N)D+3Lean DLean D28-JunNikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)Regan Deering ($113,496)
IllinoisIL17Open (D)D+2TossupTossup28-JunEric Sorensen ($307,547)Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)
IndianaIN01Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+3TossupTossup3-MayFrank J Mrvan ($640,557)Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)
KansasKS03Sharice Davids (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugSharice Davids ($3,513,158)Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)
MaineME02Jared Golden (D)R+6TossupTossup14-JunJared Golden ($2,705,743)Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
MichiganMI03Peter Meijer (R)D+1TossupTossup2-AugHillary Scholten ($489,969)John Gibbs ($145,949)
MichiganMI07Elissa Slotkin (D)R+2TossupTossup2-AugElissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
MichiganMI08Dan Kildee (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugDaniel Kildee ($2,192,936)Paul Junge ($207,097)
MinnesotaMN02Angie Craig (D)D+1TossupTossup9-AugAngie Craig ($3,613,413)Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
North CarolinaNC01Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D17-MayDon Davis ($450,078)Sandy Smith ($789,108)
North CarolinaNC13Open (R)R+2TossupLean R17-MayWiley Nickel ($466,242)Robert Hines ($1,636,468)
New HampshireNH01Chris Pappas (D)EVENTossupTossup13-SepChris Pappas ($2,064,233)NANH01 CANVASSING
New HampshireNH02Annie Kuster (D)D+2TossupLean D13-SepAnnie Kuster ($2,203,788)NANH02 CANVASSING
New JerseyNJ07Tom Malinowski (D)R+1Lean RLean R7-JunTom Malinowski ($4,555,639)Thomas H.. Kean ($1,844,184)
New MexicoNM02Yvette Herrell (R)D+1TossupTossup7-JunGabriel Vasquez ($588,777)Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
NevadaNV01Dina Titus (D)D+3TossupLean D14-Jun Dina Titus ($1,030,454)Mark Robertson ($415,107)
NevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1TossupTossup14-JunSusie Lee ($2,927,013)April Becker ($1,009,569)
NevadaNV04Steven Horsford (D)D+3TossupLean D14-JunSteve Horsford ($2,290,819)Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
New YorkNY01Open (R)R+3Lean RLean R23-AugBridget Fleming/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/Nicholas LaLotaNY01 CANVASSING
New YorkNY03Open (D)D+2TossupTossup23-AugRobert ZimmermanNot available yetGeorge SantosNY03 CANVASSING
New YorkNY17Sean Patrick Maloney (D)D+3Lean DLean D23-AugSean Patrick Maloney/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/Michael LawlerNY17 CANVASSING
New YorkNY18Open (D)D+1TossupTossup23-AugPat RyanColin SchmittNY18 CANVASSING
New YorkNY19Pat Ryan (D) (special election)EVENTossupTossup23-AugJosh RileyMarc MolinaroNY19 CANVASSING
New YorkNY22Open (R)D+1TossupTossup23-AugFrancis ConoleBrandon WilliamsNY 22 CANVASSING
OhioOH01Steve Chabot (R)D+2TossupTossup3-MayGreg Landsman ($575,540)Steve Chabot ($881,071)
OhioOH09Marcy Kaptur (D)R+3TossupTossup3-MayMarcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)J R Majewski ($418,741)
OhioOH13Open (D)R+1TossupTossup3-MayEmilia Sykes ($402,292)Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)
OregonOR05Open (D)D+2TossupTossup17-MayJamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)
PennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2Lean RTossup17-MaySusan Wild ($3,006,083)Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)
PennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4TossupTossup17-MayMatt Cartwright ($2,546,102)Jim Bognet ($713,988)
PennsylvaniaPA17Open (D)EVENTossupTossup17-MayChris Deluzio ($446,030)/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)
Rhode IslandRI02Open (D)D+4TossupLean D13-Sep NA NA
TexasTX28Henry Cuellar (D)D+3TossupTossup24-MayHenry Cuellar ($3,832,815)Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
TexasTX34Merged Seat (D)D+9Lean DLean D24-MayVicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
VirginiaVA02Elaine Luria (D)R+2TossupTossup21-JunElaine Luria ($3,806,720)Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)
VirginiaVA07Abigail Spanberger (D)D+1Lean DLean D21-JunAbigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)Yesli Vega ($356,105)
WashingtonWA08Kim Schrier (D)D+1TossupTossup2-AugKim Schrier ($4,136,518)Matt Larkin ($398,614)
WisconsinWI03Open (D)R+4Lean RLean R9-AugDerrick Van Orden



Diane Sherlock

Local Organization(s):
Swing Left Maricopa County

Mission Arizona

project 15/30