Looking at the new maps in Texas, Virginia, Nevada, Oregon, Iowa and Maine
TEXAS
If you were impressed with how California Dems shored up their risky districts and made more vulnerable several Republican districts, the Texas GOP Legislature makes their efforts look quaint.
- The number of competitive districts (PVI ranging from R+5 to D+5) went from twelve to just two
- The two competitive districts left are currently rated Lean R (TX15) and Likely R (TX23) by Cook.
- TX-23 (R+5) has a Republican incumbent Tony Gonzales facing John Lira who won the Democratic primary.
- The other is an open seat – TX 15 (D+1). Vincent Gonzales (D) moved from district 15 to run in a new safe Dem seat (TX 34), leaving TX 15 open. Ruben Ramirez and Michelle Vallejo have advanced to a runoff for the Democratic nomination. Monica De La Cruz is the Republican nominee with close to $1.5M.
- On the bright side for Dems, Lizzie Fletcher (TX 07), Colin Alred (TX 32) and Vincent Gonzalez (TX 34) all became safer Democratic holds and are now rated Solid Dem seats.
Competitive Races
District | Incumbent | Old PVI | New PVI | Cook Rating | Rep # | GOP $ Raised | Leading GOP | $ Raised | Dem # | Dem $ Raised | Leading Dem | $ Raised |
TX-15 | OPEN (Gonzales) (D) | D+3 | D+1 | Lean R | 4 | $1,714,581 | Monica De Cruz | $1,447,150 | 6 | $202,302 | Ruben Ramirez | $94,030 |
TX-23 | Tony Gonzales (R) | R+1 | R+5 | Likely R | 2 | $1,304,359 | Tony Gonzales | $1,296,690 | 1 | $248,038 | John Lira | $248,038 |
VIRGINIA
(filing deadline 3/30/22)
Yes Abigail, there is a Santa Claus ….
- Abigail Spanberger got the most benefit of the Democratic led redistricting effort. Her district was taken from an R+3 to a D+1 district — still not by any means a safe win, but a lot easier than under the 2020 map.
- By contrast, Elaine Luria was the Democratic loser, with her district becoming slightly more Republican at R+3. She will be facing State Senator Jen Kiggans who is considered a strong candidate. She will need support.
- Incumbents Wexton (D) and Whitman (R) also both get safer districts than before. There were no other changes that resulted in seats shifting significantly more or less competitive than before.
Competitive Races
District | Incumbent | Old PVI | New PVI | Cook Rating | Rep # | GOP $ Raised | Leading GOP | $ Raised | Dem # | Dem $ Raised | Leading Dem | $ Raised |
VA-02 | Elaine Luria (D) | R+1 | R+3 | Toss Up | 4 | $1,103,532 | Jennifer Kiggans | $627,295 | 1 | $2,603,289 | Elaine Luria | $2,603,289 |
VA-07 | Abigail Spanberger (D) | R+3 | D+1 | Lean D | 8 | $1,732,077 | Tina Marie Ramirez | $476,959 | 1 | $2,705,,123 | Abigail Spanberger | $2,705,123 |
NEVADA
(filing deadline 3/18/22)
It’s a Vegas gamble ….
- Nevada Democrats opted for maps that shift Democratic voters from NV01 – the district that encompasses Las Vegas – to more competitive districts 3 and 4, hoping to hold all three. In a strong Republican year, it could put all three seats at high risk.
- Little change to the solid Republican District.
Competitive Races
District | Incumbent | Old PVI | New PVI | Cook Rating | Rep # | GOP $ Raised | Leading GOP | $ Raised | Dem # | Dem $ Raised | Leading Dem | $ Raised |
NV-01 | Dina Titus (D) | D+12 | D+3 | Lean D | 2 | $139,612 | Carolina Serrano | $139,612 | 2 | $945,601 | Dina Titus | $668,253 |
NV-03 | Susie Lee (D) | R+2 | D+2 | Lean D | 5 | $1,198,955 | April Becker | $829,226 | 1 | $2,457,248 | Susie Lee | $2,457,248 |
NV-04 | Steven Horsford (D) | D+1 | D+3 | Lean D | 2 | $566,033 | Sam Peters | $502,002 | 1 | $1,818,137 | Steven Horsford | $1,818,137 |
IOWA
(Filing deadline: 3/18/22)
No “hawkeye” needed to see changes in this state ….
The non-partisan committee produced a map that leaves the competitiveness of all four of Iowa’s districts little changed.
- Cindy Axne is still running in a CD that voted R+3. There are three Republicans running to challenge her.
- IA-01 has become more competitive. Marienette Miller Meeks, who beat Rita Hart by just 6 votes, is running again. Christina Bohannan is the lead Dem candidate challenging her. She has raised over $250K.
- Elizabeth Mathis (D) is a credible challenger to Ashley Hinston, R, in IA-02, However ,with a PVI of R+5, it is deemed a long shot race.
Competitive Races
District | Incumbent | Old PVI | New PVI | Cook Rating | Rep # | GOP $ Raised | Leading GOP | $ Raised | Dem # | Dem $ Raised | Leading Dem | $ Raised |
IA-01 | Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) | R+4 | R+3 | Likely R | 2 | $1,564,259 | Miller-Meeks | $1,556,379 | 1 | $646,012 | Christina Bohannan | $646,012 |
IA-03 | Cindy Axne (D) | R+3 | R+3 | Toss Up | 3 | $782,426 | Nicole Hasso | $339,894 | 1 | $2,559,691 | Cindy Axne | $2,559,691 |
OREGON
(Filing deadline: 3/8/22)
First round goes to the Dems ….
- Oregon was the first to pass its map, and it was a favorable map for Dems. OR-04 moved from R+1 to D+4, making it much safer for Rep. Peter DeFazio (D)
- Oregon gained a new district OR-06, which is rated D+3, making it likely a new Democratic seat.
- OR-05, represented by moderate Democrat Kurt Schrader, became slightly more competitive. He may run in OR-06
Competitive Races
District | Incumbent | Old PVI | New PVI | Cook Rating | Rep # | GOP $ Raised | Leading GOP | $ Raised | Dem # | Dem $ Raised | Leading Dem | $ Raised |
OR-04 | Peter DeFazio (D) | R+1 | D+4 | Likely D | 2 | $1,176,443 | Alek Skarlatos | $1,556,379 | 3 | $1,763,587 | Peter A Defazio | $1,400,634 |
OR-05 | Kurt Schraeder (D) | D+1 | Likely D | 2 | $444,911 | Lori Chavez-Deremer | $1,556,379 | 3 | $1,640,926 | Kurt Schrader | $1,407,034 | |
OR-06 | NEW | N/A | D+3 | Likely D | 5 | $276,087 | Nate Sandvig | $339,894 | 5 | $641,570 | Andrea Salinas | $178,195 |
MAINE
Filing deadline: 3/15/22)
The main Maine story is Golden ….
Most of Maine’s population growth has occurred in ME-01, a solid Democratic district. Some Dems (from Augusta) were moved to ME-02, which would seem to help Jared Golden, but maybe not enough.
- Jared Golden is the most vulnerable D by PVI in the country. Poliquin, former Rep. in ME-02, was ousted by Golden in 2018 and is trying to take back his seat.
- Trump carried ME-02 in 2016 and 2020. Golden is one of only seven Democrats who represents a seat that Trump won in 2020.
Competitive Races
District | Incumbent | Old PVI | New PVI | Cook Rating | Rep # | GOP $ Raised | Leading GOP | $ Raised | Dem # | Dem $ Raised | Leading Dem | $ Raised |
ME-02 | Jared Golden (D) | R+6 | R+6 | Toss Up | 4 | $1,554,492 | Bruce Lee Poliquin | $1,479,866 | 1 | $2,014,397 | Jared Golden | $2,014,397 |
