Take Action: Nevada

Senate (Rosen), NV-03 (Lee)

The political outlook in the battleground state of Nevada is shaped by many factors, including the state’s demographics, economy, and political history.

In 2024, incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Jackie Rosen is running for a second term. Senator Rosen easily won the state's Democratic Primary, getting 92% of the vote against two little-known candidates and raising more than $19 million. Rosen said, “My opponent will say anything to get elected. His far-right agenda of banning abortion even in case of rape or incest, phasing out Social Security and Medicare, abolishing the Department of Education and reviving Yucca Mountain as a nuclear waste dump would be disaster for Nevada and hardworking families across our state.”

In NV-03, where Rosen formerly served, U.S. Congresswoman Susie Lee, is seeking a fourth term. She has vastly outraised her Republican opponent, The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has designated Lee as a Frontline Candidate, and the GOP has deemed NV-03 a Target District.

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SENATE RACE

State	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Arizona	OPEN -- (Sinema (I))	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Jul-30	Ruben Gallego	Kari Lake
Nevada	Jacky Rosen (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Lean D	Jun-11	Jacky Rosen	Sam Brown
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey (D)	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Apr-23	Bob Casey	Dave McCormick
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin (D)	R+2	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-13	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde
Michigan	OPEN -- (Stabinow (D))	EVEN	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-06	Elissa Slotkin	Mike Rogers
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (D)	R+6	Tossup	Tossup	Mar-19	Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno
Montana	Jon Tester (D)	R+11	Lean R	Lean R	Jun-04	Jon Tester	Tim Sheehy
Nebraska	Deb Fischer (R)	R+13	Likely R	Likely R	May-14	Dan Osborn (Ind)	Deb Fischer

COMPETITIVE HOUSE SEATS

State	District	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Party in Power	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)	Fundraising Target
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Tossup	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$3,338,609	Multiple	$840,000
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Amish Shah	$216,508	David Schweikert	$1,548,761	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Kirsten Engel	$3,197,698	Juan Ciscomani	$2,667,947
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$1,525,657	Scott Baugh	$2,277,891	Yes
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$1,816,564	John Duarte	$2,078,186	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$1,741,508	David Valadao	$2,000,244	Yes
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$3,879,062	Mike Garcia	$2,226,582
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$4,747,346	Ken Calvert	$3,618,194
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Tossup	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$1,156,780	Michelle Steel	$3,792,958
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$3,464,254	Gabe Evans	$532,844
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Lean R	Jun-25	Adam Frisch	$3,924,268	Jeff Hurd	$156,577
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$2,065,380	George Logan	$1,013,129
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$2,590,786	Joseph McGraw	$475,444
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Lean D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$1,472,994	Randy Niemeyer	$446,529
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Lanon Baccam	$1,594,015	Zach Nunn	$2,439,075
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$3,289,109	Austin Theriault	$898,582
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Curtis Hertel	$3,280,946	Tom Barrett	$1,215,354
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Kristen McDonald Rivet	$805,117	Paul Junge	$332,295
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6	Carl Marlinga	$104,385	John James	$4,016,408
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$3,833,263	Joe Teirab	$813,428
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Tossup	May-14	Tony Vargas	$2,524,082	Don Bacon	$2,215,340
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$2,989,768	Drew Johnson	$49,936
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Sue Altman	$2,223,330	Thomas Kean	$3,005,363
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$2,702,018	Yvette Herrell	$1,354,939
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$3,544,699	Alison Esposito	$729,460
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	R	Lean D	Jun-25	John Mannion	$340,531	Brandon Williams	$1,363,587
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Laura Gillen	$2,518,692	Anthony DEsposito	$2,171,544
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Mondaire Jones	$4,312,537	Mike Lawler	$3,930,456
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Josh Riley	$4,001,183	Marc Molinaro	$2,260,325
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$2,621,138	Laurie Buckhout	$600,021
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$2,636,320	Derek Merrin	$408,073
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$2,369,256	Kevin Coughlin	$389,218
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$2,169,080	Mike Erickson	$234,144
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Tossup	May-21	Janelle Bynum	$1,087,862	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$2,409,555
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$1,871,536	Rob Mercuri	$801,259
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$3,855,492	Ryan MacKenzie	$373,255
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$4,538,774	Robert Bresnahan	$1,225,264
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Lean R	Apr-23	Janelle Stelson	$1,115,431	Scott Perry	$788,823
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$1,679,288	Mayra Flores	$1,093,137
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Tossup	Jun-18	Eugene Vindman	$2,284,458	Derrick Anderson	$460,802
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18	Missy Cotter Smasal	$584,974	Jen Kiggans	$2,471,942
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$3,825,433	Joe Kent	$585,494
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13	Rebecca Cooke	$1,050,132	Derrick Van Orden	$2,383,946

Nevada is a diverse state with a large Hispanic population. This demographic group has traditionally supported the Democratic Party, and this trend is expected to continue in the 2024 elections. However, the GOP has made significant inroads and are expected to mount a strong challenge.

The state’s purple lean is clear; Trump won Nevada in 2016 but Biden won in 2020 by 2 points, and the governorship flipped to Democrat in 2022.

The economy is another key factor shaping Nevada’s political outlook. The recovery of the state’s large tourism industry, hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic, will be a key issue.

Rosen is considered one of the most bipartisan senators in the US Senate and has consistently performed well in polls in her state. The issues she lists as most important are:
Lowering costs of prescription drugs, healthcare, and housing for the middle class

Defending abortion rights
Tackling the climate crisis
Protecting Social Security and Medicare

The issues Lee has focused on in Congress include:

Climate change: Policies that reduce carbon emissions reduction and clean energy promotion
Economy and jobs: Policies that support small businesses and entrepreneurs
Education, Improving access to education and reduce student debt
Health care, policies that improve access and reduce costs to health care

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