Read this thoughtful article by Hal Malchow published in The Hill, about how Democratic party leaders should adjust campaign strategies in today’s highly partisan times.
In polling places across America, the ground has shifted. The “ticket splitter,” who once ruled election outcomes, has almost disappeared. According to Public Opinion Strategies, a leading Republican pollster, in the year 2000 ticket splitters comprised 36 percent of the electorate. In 2020, that figure had fallen to 11 percent. Meanwhile, measurements of the effectiveness of political persuasion ads show a medium generating hardly any effect at all.
In a 2017 study of 49 control group experiments measuring the effectiveness of political mail — mailings sent in primaries and ballot referendums — showed statistically significant effects. Mailings sent to support candidates in general elections with party on the ballot showed no effects at all.These two developments represent the most unnoticed earthquake in the history of American campaigns.
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