CA-22 is a top target for a flip. Republican David Valadao won his second term in the redistricted CA-22 with $1 million of Musk’s money. Recent organized pressure from constituents has made Valadao break with his party. But he voted for the MAGA Big Ugly Bill even thought he had promised not to cut Medicaid. This may bite him in the end in his heavily Latino agricultural district.
Two other districts currently held by Republicans, CA-40 and CA-41, are also considered flippable, as they both are rated as Lean R. Our California partners are already hard at work contacting constituents in these districts.
When the impact of tariffs hit, California will be hit hard. Three of the top 20 ports in the US are in California, with Los Angeles port deemed the busiest. Significant layoffs and economic hardship in those areas as well as local unrest about education and school lunch funding could tip the scales for Democrats.
Just three flips from red to blue will erode Republican power in the House.