Take Action Michigan

Senate (Open - Stabinow), MI-07 (Open), MI-08 (Open), MI-10 (Flip)

Michigan has one U.S. Senate and three House races of note. The Senate race is worth our attention as incumbent Democratic Debbie Stabenow, in office since 2000, is not seeking a fifth term. Several candidates have emerged, including Elissa Slotkin, who currently serves in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District.

Races in the U.S. House include MI-07, open because of Slotkin’s decision to run for Senate; MI-08 which is open due to incumbent Democrat Dan Kildee’s retirement; and MI-10, where Democrats hope to flip the seat now held by a Republican.
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MICHIGAN COMPETITIVE RACES
SENATE

StateIncumbentPVICook RatingPrimary DateDemocratic CandidateRepublican Candidate
ArizonaOPEN -- (Sinema (I))R+2TossupJul-30Ruben Gallego*
NevadaJacky Rosen (D)EVENLean DJun-11Jacky Rosen
PennsylvaniaBob Casey (D)R+2Lean DApr-23Bob CaseyDave McCormick
WisconsinTammy Baldwin (D)R+2Lean DAug-06Tammy Baldwin
MichiganOPEN -- (Stabinow (D))EVENLean DAug-06Elissa Slotkin*
OhioSherrod Brown (D)R+6TossupMar-19Sherrod BrownBernie Moreno
MontanaJon Tester (D)R+11TossupJun-04Jon TesterTim Sheehy
HOUSE

StateDistrictIncumbentPartisan LeanParty in PowerCook RatingPrimary DateDem Candidate$ Raised (Dem)Rep Candidate$ Raised (Rep)
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaR+8DLean DAug-20Mary Peltola$2,574,831
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertR+2RToss UpJul-30David Schweikert$1,192,101
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniR+3RToss UpJul-30Juan Ciscomani$2,452,350
CaliforniaCA-47OPEN (Porter)D+3DLean DMar-5David Min $424,839Scott Baugh$1,903,809
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteD+4RToss UpMar-5Adam Gray$1,150,422John Duarte$1,813,336
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoD+5RToss UpMar-5Rudy Salas$754,435David Valadao$1,640,960
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaD+4RToss UpMar-5George Whitesides$3,047,188Mike Garcia$1,754,767
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertR+3RToss UpMar-5Will Rollins$3,162,026Ken Calvert$2,639,377
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelD+2RLean RMar-5Derek Tran$195,382Michelle Steel$3,218,738
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoEVENDToss UpJun-25Yadira Caraveo$1,997,583
ColoradoCO-03OPEN (Boebert)R+7RLean RJun-25OPEN (Boebert)
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesD+3DLean DAug-13Jahana Hayes$1,526,492
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenD+2DLean DMar-19Eric Sorensen$2,157,618Joseph McGraw$325,191
IndianaIN-01Frank MrvanD+3DLean DMay-7Frank Mrvan$1,238,183Randy Niemeyer$295,575
IowaIA-03Zach NunnR+3RLean RJun-4Lanon Baccam$1,153,969Zach Nunn$1,847,579
MaineME-02Jared GoldenR+6DToss UpJun-11Jared Golden$2,156,439
MichiganMI-07OPEN (Slotkin)R+2DToss UpAug-6
MichiganMI-08OPEN (Kildee)R+1DToss UpAug-6
MichiganMI-10John JamesR+3RLean RAug-6John James$2,958,581
MinnesotaMN-02Angie CraigD+1DLean DAug-13Angie Craig$2,822,415
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconEVENRLean RMay-14Tony Vargas$1,641,255Don Bacon$1,727,525
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeD+1DLean DJun-11Susie Lee$2,179,266Drew Johnson$211,437
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas KeanR+1RToss UpJun-4Sue Altman$913,939Thomas Kean$2,395,291
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezD+1DToss UpJun-4Gabe Vasquez$1,805,859Yvette Herrell$1,044,795
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanD+2DLean DJun-25Pat Ryan$2,768,926
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsD+3RLean DJun-25Brandon Williams$1,080,376
New YorkNY-04Anthony DEspositoD+5RToss UpJun-25Laura Gillen$879,583Anthony DEsposito$1,363,618
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerD+3RToss UpJun-25Mondaire Jones$3,115,165Mike Lawler$3,022,485
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroR+1RToss UpJun-25Josh Riley$2,508,263Marc Molinaro$1,767,264
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisR+1DToss UpMar-5Don Davis$1,845,760Laurie Buckhout$239,479
OhioOH-09Marcy KapturR+3DToss UpMar-19Marcy Kaptur$1,893,847Derek Merrin$88,166
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesR+1DToss UpMar-19Emilia Sykes$1,649,815Kevin Coughlin$76,192
OregonOR-06Andrea SalinasD+4DLean DMay-21Andrea Salinas$1,601,364Mike Erickson$140,962
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerD+2RLean RMay-21Janelle Bynum$560,821Lori Chavez-DeRemer$1,878,340
PennsylvaniaPA-17Chris DeluzioEVENDLean DApr-23Chris Deluzio$1,491,729Rob Mercuri$540,528
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildR+2DToss UpApr-23Susan Wild$2,662,153Ryan MacKenzie$126,142
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightR+4DToss UpApr-23Matt Cartwright$3,151,047Robert Bresnahan$834,919
PennsylvaniaPA-10Scott PerryR+5RLean RApr-23Janelle Stelson$191,905Scott Perry$513,461
TexasTX-34Vicente GonzalezD+9DLean DMay-28Vicente Gonzalez$1,452,143Mayra Flores$786,597
VirginiaVA-07OPEN (Spanberger)D+1DLean DJun-18
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansR+2RLean RJun-18Jen Kiggans$1,785,014
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezR+5DToss UpAug-6Marie Gluesenkamp Perez$3,028,214
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenR+4RLean RAug-13Derrick Van Orden$1,946,820

Coming off historic losses in 2022, the Michigan Republican State Party is in dire financial straits, and the infighting has been fierce. A report issued by a GOP activist says most party bank accounts are empty. This chaos and lack of capital likely will provide a boon for the state’s Democrats.

The House races:

  • MI-07: Both parties are eyeing the open seat in MI-07, a district of growing diversity. The outcome of the election likely will hinge on voter turnout. It is rated a Tossup.
  • M-08: Redistricting made MI-08 more red, but incumbent Kildee won by 10 points in 2022, good news for whoever wins the Democratic primary in August. The district is rated Toss-up.
  • MI-10: A suburban district north of Detroit, MI-10 is eminently flippable. It is rated Lean R, but the current Republican incumbent, who had a great financial advantage, won by only 1,600 votes in 2022.

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