Take Action: California

CA-09 (Harder), CA-13, (Gray), CA-22 (Salas), CA-27 (Smith), CA-45 (Chen), CA-47 (Porter), CA-49 (Levin)

The Golden State redistricting has favored Democrats: Three flippable districts are within reach – 22, 27 and 45. Three Democratic candidates are safer: Porter, Harder and Levin. One open seat held by a Democrat promises a tough race. But the resulting backlash to the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade may have made the holds and flips more likely.

California has a top-two primary system. Almost 62% of those who voted in the primaries were Democrats, almost 37% were Republicans, and less than 1% were unenrolled.

CA-09 is an open seat. Josh Harder (currently representing CA-10) is now running in the bluer CA-09. Harder won the primary with 38% of the vote, compared to the 28.6% received by Republican Tom Patti. Patti is a county supervisor and former sparring partner of Mike Tyson. The district is D+5 and is rated lean D. However, even though Biden carried the district by 11 points in 2020, anger over inflation and water scarcity have weakened the Democrats’ advantage. Voters here voted to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom by a point. And in the primary, the two top GOP candidates combined reached almost 43%.

The seat in the redrawn and mostly rural CA-13 is open. CA State Assemblyman Adam Gray will face Republican John Duarte, a farmer who heads his family’s nursery business. Democrats tout Gray’s credentials as a Blue Dog who emphasizes his farm roots and is willing to fight his party on water and the so-called “tractor tax.” Republicans are enthusiastic about the wealthy Duarte, who is running as an outsider. The battle for the district is expected to be fierce; the GOP sees the 13th as a chance to grab the open seat. Duarte placed first in the all-party primary (34-32%).

CA-22 is Devin Nunes’ former district. When he left to become CEO of Trump Media & Technology Group, Republican Connie Conway won the special election. But Conway didn’t run for reelection, clearing the way for Republican David Valadao, now representing CA-21. In the nonpartisan primary Democratic State Assemblyman Rudy Salas won with 45% of the vote to Valadao’s 25%. However, Valadao so far has outraised Salas. This sets up the 22nd – located in the San Joaquin Valley – as flippable but a battle.

North of Los Angeles CA-27 now includes a bit of San Fernando Valley, a chunk of Antelope Valley, and Santa Clarita. The historically conservative valley swings blue to red to back again. Republican Mike Garcia switched into this district from CA-25 where he is serving this first term. Democratic State Assemblywoman Christy Smith trailed Garcia in the primary, 49.6% to 35.4%. But Smith enjoys an 11-percentage point Democratic voter registration advantage.

CA-45 is also bluer. In Orange County, where President Reagan said is a place “where old Republicans go to die,” Democrats outnumber Republicans in voter registration. And there is a sizable no-party preference voter bloc. Democrat Jay Chen (D) is challenging Republican Cong.Michelle Steel in November. Steel positions herself as a moderate but has voted against protections for both same sex marriage and contraception. In the primary, Steel received 48% of the vote while Chen received 43%. CA-45 is currently represented by Katie Porter.

Speaking of Rep. Katie Porter, she’s now running in CA-47, a slightly more Democratic district. In the June primary, Porter bested her Republican opponent, Scott Baugh, with 51% of the vote compared to 30.8%. Porter, known for her white board presentations to take down Republican lies, has outraised Baugh more than 16 to 1. Still, the race is a top GOP target in the battle for House control, and Democrats have listed Porter as a “front-liner” in defending their majority.

In CA-49, incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Levin cruised to victory in the primary, garnering 48.9% of the vote against two Republican opponents. The winner, Brian Maryott, received only 19%. Levin ran on progressive campaign themes including abortion access, gun policy reform, and Medicare for all. Maryott vows to fight so-called Critical Race Theory in schools and supports a total ban on abortions. This seat is much safer than the other two Dem holds.

COMPETITIVE CA RACES
StateDistrictIncumbentPVICook RatingDem CandidateRep CandidateCanvassing
AlaskaAKALMary Peltola (Special Election)R+8TossupTossupMary PeltolaMary PeltolaSarah Palin
ArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2TossupLean R2-AugJevin D Hodge ($706,318)David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
ArizonaAZ02Tom O'Halleran (D)R+6Lean RLean RTom O'HalleranEli Crane (R)
ArizonaAZ06Open (D)R+3Lean RLean R2-AugKirsten Engel ($1,041,479)Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
CaliforniaCA09Josh Harder (D)D+5Lean DLean D7-JunJosh Harder ($4,233,777)Thomas Patti ($498,400)CA09 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA13Open (D)D+4TossupTossup7-JunAdam C. Gray ($664,425)John S Duarte ($234,450)
CaliforniaCA22David Valadao (R)D+5TossupTossup7-JunRudy Salas ($460,158)David Valadao ($1,752,035)CA22 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA27Mike Garcia (R)D+4TossupTossup7-JunChristy Smith ($830,862)Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)CA27 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA41Ken Calvert (R)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunWill RollinsKen Calvert
CaliforniaCA45Michelle Steel (R)D+2Lean RLean R7-JunJay Chen ($1,964,097)Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)CA45 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA47Katie Porter (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunKatie Porter ($13,268,126)Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)CA47 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA49Mike Levin (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunMike Levin ($2,594,411)Brian L Maryott ($774,200)CA49 CANVASSING
ColoradoCO08New Seat (N)EVENTossupLean R28-JunYadira Caraveo ($567,794)Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
ConnecticutCT05Jahana Hayes (D)D+3Lean DLean D9-AugJahana Hayes ($1,112,088)George S Logan ($375,091)CT05 CANVASSING
IowaIA03Cindy Axne (D)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunCindy AxneZach Nunn ($695,573)IA03 CANVASSING
IllinoisIL13Open (N)D+3Lean DLean D28-JunNikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)Regan Deering ($113,496)IL13 CANVASSING
IllinoisIL17Open (D)D+2TossupTossup28-JunEric Sorensen ($307,547)Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)IL17 CANVASSING
IndianaIN01Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+3TossupTossup3-MayFrank J Mrvan ($640,557)Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)IN01 CANVASSING
KansasKS03Sharice Davids (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugSharice Davids ($3,513,158)Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)KS03 CANVASSING
MaineME02Jared Golden (D)R+6TossupTossup14-JunJared Golden ($2,705,743)Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
MichiganMI03Peter Meijer (R)D+1Lean DLean D2-AugHillary ScholtenJohn Gibbs
MichiganMI07Elissa Slotkin (D)R+2TossupTossup2-AugElissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
MichiganMI08Dan Kildee (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugDaniel Kildee ($2,192,936)Paul Junge ($207,097)
MinnesotaMN02Angie Craig (D)D+1TossupTossup9-AugAngie Craig ($3,613,413)Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
North CarolinaNC01Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D17-MayDon Davis ($450,078)Sandy Smith ($789,108)

NC01 CANVASSING

North CarolinaNC13Open (R)R+2TossupLean R17-MayWiley Nickel ($466,242)Robert Hines ($1,636,468)

NC13 CANVASSING

New HampshireNH01Chris Pappas (D)EVENTossupTossup13-SepChris PappasKaroline LeavittNH01 CANVASSING
New HampshireNH02Annie Kuster (D)D+2Lean DLean D13-SepAnnie KusterBob Burns NH02 CANVASSING
New JerseyNJ07Tom Malinowski (D)R+1Lean RLean R7-JunTom Malinowski ($4,555,639)Thomas H. Kean ($1,844,184)

NJ07 CANVASSING

New MexicoNM02Yvette Herrell (R)D+1TossupTossup7-JunGabriel Vasquez ($588,777)Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
NevadaNV01Dina Titus (D)D+3TossupLean D14-Jun Dina Titus ($1,030,454)Mark Robertson ($415,107)
NevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1TossupTossup14-JunSusie Lee ($2,927,013)April Becker ($1,009,569)
NevadaNV04Steven Horsford (D)D+3TossupLean D14-JunSteve Horsford ($2,290,819)Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
New YorkNY01Open (R)R+3Lean RLean R23-AugBridget Fleming/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/Nicholas LaLotaNY01 CANVASSING
New YorkNY03Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D23-AugRobert ZimmermanNot available yetGeorge SantosNY03 CANVASSING
New YorkNY17Sean Patrick Maloney (D)D+3Lean DLean D23-AugSean Patrick Maloney/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/Michael LawlerNY17 CANVASSING
New YorkNY18Open (D)D+1Lean DLean D23-AugPat RyanColin SchmittNY18 CANVASSING
New YorkNY19Pat Ryan (D) (special election)EVENTossupTossup23-AugJosh RileyMarc MolinaroNY19 CANVASSING
New YorkNY22Open (R)D+1TossupTossup23-AugFrancis ConoleBrandon WilliamsNY 22 CANVASSING
OhioOH01Steve Chabot (R)D+2TossupTossup3-MayGreg Landsman ($575,540)Steve Chabot ($881,071)

OH01 CANVASSING

OhioOH09Marcy Kaptur (D)R+3Lean DTossup3-MayMarcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)J R Majewski ($418,741)

OH09 CANVASSING

OhioOH13Open (D)R+1TossupTossup3-MayEmilia Sykes ($402,292)Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)

OH13 CANVASSING

OregonOR05Open (D)D+2TossupTossup17-MayJamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)

OR05 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2Lean RTossup17-MaySusan Wild ($3,006,083)Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)

PA07 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4TossupTossup17-MayMatt Cartwright ($2,546,102)Jim Bognet ($713,988)

PA08 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA17Open (D)EVENTossupTossup17-MayChris Deluzio ($446,030)/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)

PA17 CANVASSING

Rhode IslandRI02Open (D)D+4TossupLean D13-SepSeth MagazinerAllen Fung

RI02 CANVASSING

TexasTX28Henry Cuellar (D)D+3TossupTossup24-MayHenry Cuellar ($3,832,815)Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
TexasTX34Merged Seat (D)D+9Lean DLean D24-MayVicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
VirginiaVA02Elaine Luria (D)R+2TossupTossup21-JunElaine Luria ($3,806,720)Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)

VA02 CANVASSING

VirginiaVA07Abigail Spanberger (D)D+1Lean DLean D21-JunAbigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)Yesli Vega ($356,105)

VA07 CANVASSING

WashingtonWA08Kim Schrier (D)D+1TossupTossup2-AugKim Schrier ($4,136,518)Matt Larkin ($398,614)

WA08 CANVASSING

WisconsinWI03Open (D)R+4Lean RLean R9-AugDerrick Van Orden

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