Take Action Florida

Flips: Senate, FL-26, FL-27. Hold: FL-13 (Crist)

Florida leans Republican according to the Cook Political Report, so ousting an incumbent will be challenging. The most visible candidate is Sen. Marco Rubio, R, first elected in 2010. Rubio’s Cuban heritage plays well in Florida, home to more than 60 percent of the U.S. Cuban population. But Rubio’s support may be weakening. Earlier this year, a Mason-Dixon poll showed 47% of Florida voters approved of Rubio’s job performance and 42% disapproved. Ten Democrats have thus far filed to run in the primary, the highest profile candidate being current U.S. Rep. Val Demings. Seven Republicans have filed to challenge Rubio.

Democrat Charlie Crist, FL 13, who won in 2020 by 6 points, has decided to run for governor, leaving an open seat. Ten candidates have emerged, including Democrats Ben Diamond and Michelle Rayner, both current members of the Florida House of Representatives; and former Obama senior adviser Eric Lynn.

Two Republican U.S. House seats are being eyed as flips.
• Carlos Gimenez, R, FL 26. His district was rated Lean D in Obama and Trump years.
• Maria Elvira Salazar, R, FL 27. She won in 2020 by 2.7 percent, but the district became more Democratic during the Trump years.

Florida is gaining a House seat, and the Republican-controlled state legislature has the advantage, another obstacle to the chances of Democrats there.