Take Action Florida

Senate (Demings)

Val Demings won the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate in Florida with almost 85% of the vote. Incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio had no primary. Demings has raised appreciably more money -- $48 million to Rubio’s $36 million. But money isn’t the whole story in Florida. What’s happening in the country has a profound effect on the Senate race there. A former Orlando police chief, Demings is a rising star who was considered as Biden’s running mate. Since 2017, she has represented FL-10 in Congress. Demings’ bid to flip the Senate seat has gained momentum due to the anger provoked by the reversal of Roe v. Wade as well as a positive bounce from recent legislative wins by Democrats in Congress. But Rubio’s appeal to Republicans is strong, and the FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago has conservatives seething.

Florida is tough for Democrats. It is R+3 and is rated lean Republican by Cook and likely R by Sabato.

The Republican state legislature and the courts handed Gov. Ron DeSantis a win when neither blocked his highly gerrymandered redistricting map. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project gave the Florida redistricting plan an overall grade of F. Florida is also gaining a House seat, and DeSantis’ map gives Republicans an advantage in 18 out of the 28 districts. Florida currently has 16 Republican congressmen.

Many Democratic seats will be nearly impossible to hold including FL-13, Charlie Crist’s seat; FL-07, Stephanie Murphy’s seat; and the new FL-15. This leaves no competitive House seats in the state of Florida.

SENATE RACE

StateIncumbentPVICook RatingSabato RatingDem CandidateRep Candidate
2-AugArizonaMark Kelly (D)R+2TossupTossupMark Kelly  ($54,141,015)Blake Masters ($5,074,424)
24-MayGeorgiaRaphael Warnock (D)R+3TossupTossupRaphael Warnock ($84,914,584)Herschel Walker ($20,233,156)
14-JunNevadaCatherine Cortez Masto (D)EVENTossupTossupCatherine Cortez Masto ($18,245,498)Adam Laxalt ($5,506,106)
13-SepNew HampshireMaggie Hassan (D)EVENLean DLean DMaggie Hassan ($15,978,865)Don Bolduc
17-MayPennsylvaniaOpen (R)R+2Lean DTossupJohn Fetterman ($15,099,876)Mehmet Oz ($19,369,709)
9-AugWisconsinRon Johnson (R)R+2TossupLean RMandela Barnes ($4,642,453)Ron Johnson ($10,177,730)
17-MayNorth CarolinaOpen (R)EVENLean RLean RCheri Beasley ($8,635,735)Theodore P Budd ($11,649,582)
3-MayOhioOpen (R)R+6Lean RLean RTimothy Ryan ($11,833,332)J D Vance ($13,515,441)
23-AugFloridaMarco Rubio (R)R+3Lean RLikely RVal Demings ($30,386,818)Marco Rubio ($23,537,885)

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