Take Action New York

NY-03 (Suozzi; NY-18 (Ryan), Flip:, NY-04 (D'Esposito), NY-17 (Lawler), NY-19 (Molinaro), NY-22 (Williams)

Democrat Tom Suozzi flipped the seat held previously by the Olympic-Gold-Liar Republican George Santos. In November there is an opportunity to flip four more U.S. House seats in New York. Additionally there is one competitive Democratic seat won by Freshman Rep Pat Ryan in NY-18 to defend. If Dems win these races, New York can singularly flip the House.

[Read More on NY Below]

COMPETITIVE RACES IN NEW YORK

StateDistrictIncumbentParty in PowerPartisan LeanCook RatingPrimary DateDemocratic CandidateRepublican Candidate
AlaskaAK-00Mary PeltolaDR+8Lean DAug-20
ArizonaAZ-01David SchweikertRR+2TossupJul-30
ArizonaAZ-06Juan CiscomaniRR+3TossupJul-30
CaliforniaCA-13John DuarteRD+4TossupMar-05Adam GrayJohn Duarte
CaliforniaCA-22David ValadaoRD+5TossupMar-05Rudy SalasDavid Valadao
CaliforniaCA-27Mike GarciaRD+4TossupMar-05George WhitesidesMike Garcia
CaliforniaCA-41Ken CalvertRR+3TossupMar-05Will RollinsKen Calvert
CaliforniaCA-45Michelle SteelRD+2Lean RMar-05TBD: Derek Tran / Kim Nguyen-PenalozaMichelle Steel
CaliforniaCA-47Open (Porter)DD+3Lean DMar-05Dave MinScott Baugh
ColoradoCO-03Lauren BoebertRR+7TossupJun-25
ColoradoCO-08Yadira CaraveoDEVENTossupJun-25
ConnecticutCT-05Jahana HayesDD+3Lean DAug-13
FloridaFL-05John RutherfordRR+11*TossupAug-20
IllinoisIL-17Eric SorensenDD+2Lean DMar-19
IndianaIN-01Frank J. MrvanDD+3Lean DMay-07
IowaIA-03Zach NunnRR+3Lean RJun-04
LouisianaLA-05Julia LetlowRR+17TossupNov-05
MaineME-02Jared GoldenDR+6TossupJun-11
MichiganMI-07Open (Slotkin)DR+2TossupAug-06
MichiganMI-10John JamesRR+3Lean RAug-06
NebraskaNE-02Don BaconREVENLean RMay-14
NevadaNV-03Susie LeeDD+1Lean DJun-11
New JerseyNJ-07Thomas Kean Jr.RR+1TossupJun-04
New MexicoNM-02Gabe VasquezDD+1TossupJun-04
New YorkNY-03OPEN -- (Santos)RD+2Lean DJun-25
New YorkNY-04Anthony D'EspositoRD+5TossupJun-25
New YorkNY-17Mike LawlerRD+3TossupJun-25
New YorkNY-18Pat RyanDD+1Lean DJun-25
New YorkNY-19Marc MolinaroREVENTossupJun-25
New YorkNY-22Brandon WilliamsRD+1TossupJun-25
North CarolinaNC-01Don DavisDD+2Lean DMar-05Don DavisLaurie Buckhout
North CarolinaNC-06Kathy ManningDD+4TossupMar-05Incumbent not runningAddison McDowell
North CarolinaNC-13Wiley NickelDR+2TossupMar-05Frank PierceRun-off May 14: Kelly Daughtry / Brad Knott
North CarolinaNC-14Jeff JacksonDD+6TossupMar-05Pam GenantTim Moore
OhioOH-01Greg LandsmanDD+2Lean DMar-19
OhioOH-13Emilia SykesDR+1TossupMar-19
OregonOR-05Lori Chavez-DeRemerRD+2TossupMay-21
PennsylvaniaPA-07Susan WildDR+2TossupApr-23
PennsylvaniaPA-08Matt CartwrightDR+4TossupApr-23
VirginiaVA-07Open (Abigail Spanberger)DD+1Lean DJun-18
VirginiaVA-02Jen KiggansRR+2Lean RJun-18
WashingtonWA-03Marie Gluesenkamp PerezDR+5TossupAug-06
WisconsinWI-03Derrick Van OrdenRR+4Lean RAug-13
MichiganMI-08Open (Kildee)DR+1Lean DAug-06

Even considering the good news of Suozzi’s win, Democratic candidates’ holding that seat and NY-18 and flip ingthe four other Congressional seats will be a battle.

Of note are four seats currently held by Republicans – NY-04, NY-17, NY-19, and NY-22. These four are rated Tossups and are eminently “flippable.” First term Democratic incumbent Pat Ryan (NY-18) is running for reelection in a district deemed Lean D.

Some key considerations in New York center on redistricting. The state appeals court has yet to issue its decision on redrawing the maps, but the Independent Redistricting Committee is being allowed to proceed in revising the 2022 maps that favored Republicans.

Responding to the Republican showing in the midterms, the NY Democratic Party and grassroots groups working in the state are taking no vote for granted. Democratic leaders are planning a ballot measure that will enshrine abortion in the state constitution. It’s a move seen as boosting Democratic turnout, which in turn, will help the party win more Congressional and local races.

The 2024 elections will be a crucial test for both parties, and the results will have far-reaching implications for the future of democracy in the state and in the country.

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Coordinator(s):
Rina Schneur

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