Take Action Michigan

MI-03 (Scholten), MI-07 (Slotkin), MI-08 Kildee)

The battleground state of Michigan is generally more conservative than the rest of the country, But the state voted for a Democrat for president all but once since 1992, which was in 2016.

Redistricting created six R-leaning seats in Michigan, four D-leaning seats, and three highly competitive seats. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project gave the new maps an overall grade of B, with an A for partisan fairness. The new 10th district in Michigan has a partisan lean of R+6 and is likely to mean a Republican victory there.

The new maps leave us three seats to fight for.

MI-03 will pit Democrat Hillary Scholten against Republican John Gibbs in the midterms. The district is rated Lean D. Scholten had no opponent in the primary, while Gibbs narrowly won his primary against the district’s incumbent, Peter Meijer, who had beat Scholten in the 2020 election.

With West Michigan roots that date back to her grandparents emigrating there, Scholten believes a woman’s choice whether to bear children is her own. Gibbs calls for “the protection of unborn humans” a top priority and would ban giving aid to any country where abortions are legal.

In MI-07, U.S. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is in a Tossup race against Republican Thomas Barrett. The district is rated R+2. Slotkin’s margin of victory in 2020 was 4 points, even though Trump won her district by 1 point. In the redrawn 7th, Biden would have won by a slim margin. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have prioritized this election.

Slotkin is a former CIA Middle East analyst who served on the White House National Security Council, in the Department of State, and in the Department of Defense. Slotkin supports the 50-year precedent set by Roe v Wade and is in favor of common-sense gun legislation. Barrett is a state senator serving in his first term. Barrett removed all mention of abortion on his campaign website, but when the Dodd decision was announced, he “branded himself ‘100% prolife — no exceptions.” He also has co-hosted a rally with a self-described “domestic terrorist.”

U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee is also in a Tossup race. In the MI-08 election, he will face Republican Paul Junge. Kildee, serving in Congress for nine years, currently represents MI-05, but redistricting altered the boundaries of his one-safe district. It is now more Republican with the addition of Midland, where Dow Chemical was founded.

Kildee was born and raised in Flint. Before being elected to Congress, he founded the Center for Community Progress, a non-profit focused on bringing new economic development to older, industrial communities like Flint, Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. In Congress, Kildee voted for two pieces of legislation ensuring women can make their own health care decisions and freely travel throughout the country to access reproductive care. Junge is a political newcomer who touts his work in his family business ahead of his work as a district attorney and TV news anchor for the local Fox affiliate. On his campaign website, Junge vows to “serve as a pro-life, pro-Second Amendment conservative leader.”

MICHIGAN COMPETITIVE RACES

ResultsStateDistrictIncumbentPVICook RatingDem CandidateRep Candidate
WINAlaskaAKALMary Peltola (Special Election)R+8Lean DTossupMary PeltolaMary PeltolaSarah Palin
LOSSArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2TossupLean R2-AugJevin D Hodge ($706,318)David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
LOSSArizonaAZ02Tom O'Halleran (D)R+6Lean RLean RTom O'HalleranEli Crane (R)
LOSSArizonaAZ06Open (D)R+3Lean RLean R2-AugKirsten Engel ($1,041,479)Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
WINCaliforniaCA09Josh Harder (D)D+5Likely DLean D7-JunJosh Harder ($4,233,777)Thomas Patti ($498,400)
LOSSCaliforniaCA13Open (D)D+4TossupTossup7-JunAdam C. Gray ($664,425)John S Duarte ($234,450)
LOSSCaliforniaCA22David Valadao (R)D+5TossupTossup7-JunRudy Salas ($460,158)David Valadao ($1,752,035)
LOSSCaliforniaCA27Mike Garcia (R)D+4TossupTossup7-JunChristy Smith ($830,862)Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)
LOSSCaliforniaCA41Ken Calvert (R)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunWill RollinsKen Calvert
LOSSCaliforniaCA45Michelle Steel (R)D+2Lean RLean R7-JunJay Chen ($1,964,097)Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)
WINCaliforniaCA47Katie Porter (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunKatie Porter ($13,268,126)Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)
WINCaliforniaCA49Mike Levin (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunMike Levin ($2,594,411)Brian L Maryott ($774,200)
WINColoradoCO08New Seat (N)EVENTossupLean R28-JunYadira Caraveo ($567,794)Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
WINConnecticutCT05Jahana Hayes (D)D+3Lean DLean D9-AugJahana Hayes ($1,112,088)George S Logan ($375,091)
LOSSIowaIA03Cindy Axne (D)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunCindy AxneZach Nunn ($695,573)
WINIllinoisIL13Open (N)D+3Lean DLean D28-JunNikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)Regan Deering ($113,496)
WINIllinoisIL17Open (D)D+2TossupTossup28-JunEric Sorensen ($307,547)Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)
WINIndianaIN01Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+3TossupTossup3-MayFrank J Mrvan ($640,557)Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)
WINKansasKS03Sharice Davids (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugSharice Davids ($3,513,158)Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)
WINMaineME02Jared Golden (D)R+6TossupTossup14-JunJared Golden ($2,705,743)Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
WINMichiganMI03Peter Meijer (R)D+1Lean DLean D2-AugHillary ScholtenJohn Gibbs
WINMichiganMI07Elissa Slotkin (D)R+2TossupTossup2-AugElissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
WINMichiganMI08Dan Kildee (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugDaniel Kildee ($2,192,936)Paul Junge ($207,097)
WINMinnesotaMN02Angie Craig (D)D+1TossupTossup9-AugAngie Craig ($3,613,413)Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
WINNorth CarolinaNC01Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D17-MayDon Davis ($450,078)Sandy Smith ($789,108)
WINNorth CarolinaNC13Open (R)R+2TossupLean R17-MayWiley Nickel ($466,242)Robert Hines ($1,636,468)
WINNew HampshireNH01Chris Pappas (D)EVENTossupTossup13-SepChris PappasKaroline Leavitt
WINNew HampshireNH02Annie Kuster (D)D+2Lean DLean D13-SepAnnie KusterBob Burns
LOSSNew JerseyNJ07Tom Malinowski (D)R+1Lean RLean R7-JunTom Malinowski ($4,555,639)Thomas H. Kean ($1,844,184)
WINNew MexicoNM02Yvette Herrell (R)D+1TossupTossup7-JunGabriel Vasquez ($588,777)Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
WINNevadaNV01Dina Titus (D)D+3TossupLean D14-Jun Dina Titus ($1,030,454)Mark Robertson ($415,107)
WINNevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1TossupTossup14-JunSusie Lee ($2,927,013)April Becker ($1,009,569)
WINNevadaNV04Steven Horsford (D)D+3TossupLean D14-JunSteve Horsford ($2,290,819)Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
LOSSNew YorkNY01Open (R)R+3Lean RLean R23-AugBridget Fleming/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/Nicholas LaLota
LOSSNew YorkNY03Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D23-AugRobert ZimmermanNot available yetGeorge Santos
LOSSNew YorkNY17Sean Patrick Maloney (D)D+3Lean DLean D23-AugSean Patrick Maloney/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/Michael Lawler
WINNew YorkNY18Open (D)D+1Lean DLean D23-AugPat RyanColin Schmitt
LOSSNew YorkNY19Pat Ryan (D) (special election)EVENTossupTossup23-AugJosh RileyMarc Molinaro
LOSSNew YorkNY22Open (R)D+1TossupTossup23-AugFrancis ConoleBrandon Williams
WINOhioOH01Steve Chabot (R)D+2TossupTossup3-MayGreg Landsman ($575,540)Steve Chabot ($881,071)
WINOhioOH09Marcy Kaptur (D)R+3Lean DTossup3-MayMarcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)J R Majewski ($418,741)
WINOhioOH13Open (D)R+1TossupTossup3-MayEmilia Sykes ($402,292)Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)
LOSSOregonOR05Open (D)D+2TossupTossup17-MayJamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)
WINPennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2TossupTossup17-MaySusan Wild ($3,006,083)Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)
WINPennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4TossupTossup17-MayMatt Cartwright ($2,546,102)Jim Bognet ($713,988)
WINPennsylvaniaPA17Open (D)EVENTossupTossup17-MayChris Deluzio ($446,030)/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)
WINRhode IslandRI02Open (D)D+4TossupLean D13-SepSeth MagazinerAllen Fung
WINTexasTX28Henry Cuellar (D)D+3Lean DTossup24-MayHenry Cuellar ($3,832,815)Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
WINTexasTX34Merged Seat (D)D+9TossupLean D24-MayVicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
LOSSVirginiaVA02Elaine Luria (D)R+2TossupTossup21-JunElaine Luria ($3,806,720)Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)
WINVirginiaVA07Abigail Spanberger (D)D+1Lean DLean D21-JunAbigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)Yesli Vega ($356,105)
WINWashingtonWA08Kim Schrier (D)D+1TossupTossup2-AugKim Schrier ($4,136,518)Matt Larkin ($398,614)
LOSSWisconsinWI03Open (D)R+4Lean RLean R9-AugDerrick Van Orden

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