Take Action Michigan

MI-03 (Scholten), MI-07 (Slotkin), MI-08 Kildee)

The battleground state of Michigan is generally more conservative than the rest of the country, But the state voted for a Democrat for president all but once since 1992, which was in 2016.

Redistricting created six R-leaning seats in Michigan, four D-leaning seats, and three highly competitive seats. The Princeton Gerrymandering Project gave the new maps an overall grade of B, with an A for partisan fairness. The new 10th district in Michigan has a partisan lean of R+6 and is likely to mean a Republican victory there.

The new maps leave us three seats to fight for.

MI-03 will pit Democrat Hillary Scholten against Republican John Gibbs in the midterms. The district is rated Lean D. Scholten had no opponent in the primary, while Gibbs narrowly won his primary against the district’s incumbent, Peter Meijer, who had beat Scholten in the 2020 election.

With West Michigan roots that date back to her grandparents emigrating there, Scholten believes a woman’s choice whether to bear children is her own. Gibbs calls for “the protection of unborn humans” a top priority and would ban giving aid to any country where abortions are legal.

In MI-07, U.S. Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is in a Tossup race against Republican Thomas Barrett. The district is rated R+2. Slotkin’s margin of victory in 2020 was 4 points, even though Trump won her district by 1 point. In the redrawn 7th, Biden would have won by a slim margin. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) have prioritized this election.

Slotkin is a former CIA Middle East analyst who served on the White House National Security Council, in the Department of State, and in the Department of Defense. Slotkin supports the 50-year precedent set by Roe v Wade and is in favor of common-sense gun legislation. Barrett is a state senator serving in his first term. Barrett removed all mention of abortion on his campaign website, but when the Dodd decision was announced, he “branded himself ‘100% prolife — no exceptions.” He also has co-hosted a rally with a self-described “domestic terrorist.”

U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee is also in a Tossup race. In the MI-08 election, he will face Republican Paul Junge. Kildee, serving in Congress for nine years, currently represents MI-05, but redistricting altered the boundaries of his one-safe district. It is now more Republican with the addition of Midland, where Dow Chemical was founded.

Kildee was born and raised in Flint. Before being elected to Congress, he founded the Center for Community Progress, a non-profit focused on bringing new economic development to older, industrial communities like Flint, Saginaw, Bay City and Midland. In Congress, Kildee voted for two pieces of legislation ensuring women can make their own health care decisions and freely travel throughout the country to access reproductive care. Junge is a political newcomer who touts his work in his family business ahead of his work as a district attorney and TV news anchor for the local Fox affiliate. On his campaign website, Junge vows to “serve as a pro-life, pro-Second Amendment conservative leader.”

MICHIGAN COMPETITIVE RACES

StateDistrictIncumbentPVICook RatingDem CandidateRep CandidateCanvassing
AlaskaAKALMary Peltola (Special Election)R+8TossupTossupMary PeltolaMary PeltolaSarah Palin
ArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2TossupLean R2-AugJevin D Hodge ($706,318)David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
ArizonaAZ02Tom O'Halleran (D)R+6Lean RLean RTom O'HalleranEli Crane (R)
ArizonaAZ06Open (D)R+3Lean RLean R2-AugKirsten Engel ($1,041,479)Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
CaliforniaCA09Josh Harder (D)D+5Lean DLean D7-JunJosh Harder ($4,233,777)Thomas Patti ($498,400)CA09 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA13Open (D)D+4TossupTossup7-JunAdam C. Gray ($664,425)John S Duarte ($234,450)
CaliforniaCA22David Valadao (R)D+5TossupTossup7-JunRudy Salas ($460,158)David Valadao ($1,752,035)CA22 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA27Mike Garcia (R)D+4TossupTossup7-JunChristy Smith ($830,862)Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)CA27 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA41Ken Calvert (R)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunWill RollinsKen Calvert
CaliforniaCA45Michelle Steel (R)D+2Lean RLean R7-JunJay Chen ($1,964,097)Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)CA45 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA47Katie Porter (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunKatie Porter ($13,268,126)Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)CA47 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA49Mike Levin (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunMike Levin ($2,594,411)Brian L Maryott ($774,200)CA49 CANVASSING
ColoradoCO08New Seat (N)EVENTossupLean R28-JunYadira Caraveo ($567,794)Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
ConnecticutCT05Jahana Hayes (D)D+3Lean DLean D9-AugJahana Hayes ($1,112,088)George S Logan ($375,091)CT05 CANVASSING
IowaIA03Cindy Axne (D)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunCindy AxneZach Nunn ($695,573)IA03 CANVASSING
IllinoisIL13Open (N)D+3Lean DLean D28-JunNikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)Regan Deering ($113,496)IL13 CANVASSING
IllinoisIL17Open (D)D+2TossupTossup28-JunEric Sorensen ($307,547)Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)IL17 CANVASSING
IndianaIN01Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+3TossupTossup3-MayFrank J Mrvan ($640,557)Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)IN01 CANVASSING
KansasKS03Sharice Davids (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugSharice Davids ($3,513,158)Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)KS03 CANVASSING
MaineME02Jared Golden (D)R+6TossupTossup14-JunJared Golden ($2,705,743)Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
MichiganMI03Peter Meijer (R)D+1Lean DLean D2-AugHillary ScholtenJohn Gibbs
MichiganMI07Elissa Slotkin (D)R+2TossupTossup2-AugElissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
MichiganMI08Dan Kildee (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugDaniel Kildee ($2,192,936)Paul Junge ($207,097)
MinnesotaMN02Angie Craig (D)D+1TossupTossup9-AugAngie Craig ($3,613,413)Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
North CarolinaNC01Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D17-MayDon Davis ($450,078)Sandy Smith ($789,108)

NC01 CANVASSING

North CarolinaNC13Open (R)R+2TossupLean R17-MayWiley Nickel ($466,242)Robert Hines ($1,636,468)

NC13 CANVASSING

New HampshireNH01Chris Pappas (D)EVENTossupTossup13-SepChris PappasKaroline LeavittNH01 CANVASSING
New HampshireNH02Annie Kuster (D)D+2Lean DLean D13-SepAnnie KusterBob Burns NH02 CANVASSING
New JerseyNJ07Tom Malinowski (D)R+1Lean RLean R7-JunTom Malinowski ($4,555,639)Thomas H. Kean ($1,844,184)

NJ07 CANVASSING

New MexicoNM02Yvette Herrell (R)D+1TossupTossup7-JunGabriel Vasquez ($588,777)Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
NevadaNV01Dina Titus (D)D+3TossupLean D14-Jun Dina Titus ($1,030,454)Mark Robertson ($415,107)
NevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1TossupTossup14-JunSusie Lee ($2,927,013)April Becker ($1,009,569)
NevadaNV04Steven Horsford (D)D+3TossupLean D14-JunSteve Horsford ($2,290,819)Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
New YorkNY01Open (R)R+3Lean RLean R23-AugBridget Fleming/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/Nicholas LaLotaNY01 CANVASSING
New YorkNY03Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D23-AugRobert ZimmermanNot available yetGeorge SantosNY03 CANVASSING
New YorkNY17Sean Patrick Maloney (D)D+3Lean DLean D23-AugSean Patrick Maloney/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/Michael LawlerNY17 CANVASSING
New YorkNY18Open (D)D+1Lean DLean D23-AugPat RyanColin SchmittNY18 CANVASSING
New YorkNY19Pat Ryan (D) (special election)EVENTossupTossup23-AugJosh RileyMarc MolinaroNY19 CANVASSING
New YorkNY22Open (R)D+1TossupTossup23-AugFrancis ConoleBrandon WilliamsNY 22 CANVASSING
OhioOH01Steve Chabot (R)D+2TossupTossup3-MayGreg Landsman ($575,540)Steve Chabot ($881,071)

OH01 CANVASSING

OhioOH09Marcy Kaptur (D)R+3Lean DTossup3-MayMarcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)J R Majewski ($418,741)

OH09 CANVASSING

OhioOH13Open (D)R+1TossupTossup3-MayEmilia Sykes ($402,292)Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)

OH13 CANVASSING

OregonOR05Open (D)D+2TossupTossup17-MayJamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)

OR05 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2Lean RTossup17-MaySusan Wild ($3,006,083)Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)

PA07 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4TossupTossup17-MayMatt Cartwright ($2,546,102)Jim Bognet ($713,988)

PA08 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA17Open (D)EVENTossupTossup17-MayChris Deluzio ($446,030)/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)

PA17 CANVASSING

Rhode IslandRI02Open (D)D+4TossupLean D13-SepSeth MagazinerAllen Fung

RI02 CANVASSING

TexasTX28Henry Cuellar (D)D+3TossupTossup24-MayHenry Cuellar ($3,832,815)Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
TexasTX34Merged Seat (D)D+9Lean DLean D24-MayVicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
VirginiaVA02Elaine Luria (D)R+2TossupTossup21-JunElaine Luria ($3,806,720)Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)

VA02 CANVASSING

VirginiaVA07Abigail Spanberger (D)D+1Lean DLean D21-JunAbigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)Yesli Vega ($356,105)

VA07 CANVASSING

WashingtonWA08Kim Schrier (D)D+1TossupTossup2-AugKim Schrier ($4,136,518)Matt Larkin ($398,614)

WA08 CANVASSING

WisconsinWI03Open (D)R+4Lean RLean R9-AugDerrick Van Orden

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