Senate (Open), MI-04 (Flip), MI-07 (Flip), MI-08 (McDonald Rivet), MI-10 (Open)
Michigan is a pivotal battleground state. Both of the state’s U.S. Senate seats have been held by Democrats for the last 30 years. However, with Democratic Senator Gary Peters retiring, the U.S. Senate seat is open, and Republicans see this as an opportunity to elect Mike Rogers, the candidate who in 2024 narrowly lost against current U.S. Senator Elissa Slotkin. The Democratic frontrunners to replace Peters are State Senator Mallory McMorrow and Congresswoman Haley Stevens.
Michigan’s 7th district, represented by Republican Tom Barrett and rated a Tossup, is prime for a flip. Barrett lost this same seat in 2022 to now-Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin. 51.7% to 46.3%.. Other districts worth focusing on are MI-04, MI-08, and MI-10.
| State | Incumbent | Partisan Lean | Cook Rating | Sabato Rating | Primary Date | Democratic Candidate | Republican Candidate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | OPEN -- (Sinema (I)) | R+2 | Lean D | Lean D | Jul-30 | Ruben Gallego | Kari Lake |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen (D) | EVEN | Lean D | Lean D | Jun-11 | Jacky Rosen | Sam Brown |
| Pennsylvania | Bob Casey (D) | R+2 | Tossup | Lean D | Apr-23 | Bob Casey | Dave McCormick |
| Wisconsin | Tammy Baldwin (D) | R+2 | Tossup | Lean D | Aug-13 | Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde |
| Michigan | OPEN -- (Stabinow (D)) | EVEN | Tossup | Lean D | Aug-06 | Elissa Slotkin | Mike Rogers |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (D) | R+6 | Tossup | Tossup | Mar-19 | Sherrod Brown | Bernie Moreno |
| Montana | Jon Tester (D) | R+11 | Lean R | Lean R | Jun-04 | Jon Tester | Tim Sheehy |
| Nebraska | Deb Fischer (R) | R+13 | Lean R | Lean R | May-14 | Dan Osborn (Ind) | Deb Fischer |
| Texas | Ted Cruz (R) | R+5 | Lean R | Likely R | Mar-05 | Colin Allred | Ted Cruz |
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