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Hold: TX-15 (Gonzalez) Flips: TX-23, TX-24

In Texas' 15th Congressional District, Democrat Vicente Gonzalez Jr. has served since he won his first election in 2016 by 19 points. Gonzalez increased his margin in 2018 to more than 20 points, but in 2020, his margin slipped to less than 3 points. To complicate matters, Gonzalez’s north McAllen home has been taken out of the congressional district he represents and moved into TX-34 by Texas Republican map drawers. The voters moved out of TX-15 and into TX-24 makes TX-15 more red.

Texas is gaining two new districts, and two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are possible flips for the Democrats.

In Texas 23, Republican Ernest “Tony” Gonzales is in his first term. His 4-point margin in 2020 was unexpected, as most political forecasts predicted his Democratic opponent would win. In the Midterms, Democrat John Lira is running for TX-23. Lira is the son of a Mexican American working-class family of four in southeast San Antonio. A United States Marine Corps veteran of 11 years, Lira earned a master’s degree in public policy from Carnegie Mellon and worked for the U.S. Small Business Administration. The district is located in southwest Texas on the Mexican border. Clinton won the district in 2016 by 4 points, but Trump won in 2020 by 2 points.

In TX 24, Republican Congresswoman Beth Van Duyne is also in her first term, having won an open seat by 1.3 points. Van Duyne is known for her anti-Muslim rhetoric and staunch support of Trump. Van Duyne has two Democratic challengers, Michelle Beckley, who represents District 65 in the Texas House of Representatives, and Derrick Gay, a lawyer and United States Marine Corps veteran. Beckley grabbed headlines as one of the Texas legislators who camped out in Washington D.C. to escape voting on a law that would restrict voting in the state.