Take Action Wisconsin

Name: DemCast Democracy Briefing
Start: 2024-12-02T16:00:00-05:00
End: 2024-12-02T17:00:00-05:00
Location: virtual

Senate (Baldwin), WI-03 (Flip)

Wisconsin remains a crucial political battleground in 2024. Its diverse electorate, along with its mix of urban and rural voters, often leads to tight races both on the local and national stage. The state of Wisconsin, with its 10 Electoral College votes, could again be the tipping point in the Presidential election. In 2020, Biden won WI by only 20,000 votes or 0.63%, while in 2016 Clinton lost it by a similar margin. The stakes cannot be higher and the margin cannot be tighter. So every vote counts!

In Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district, Rebecca Cooke is running to flip a seat now held by an election-denying Republican who stands solidly with Trump.

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SENATE RACE

State	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Cook Rating	Sabato Rating	Primary Date	Democratic Candidate	Republican Candidate
Arizona	OPEN -- (Sinema (I))	R+2	Lean D	Lean D	Jul-30	Ruben Gallego	Kari Lake
Nevada	Jacky Rosen (D)	EVEN	Lean D	Lean D	Jun-11	Jacky Rosen	Sam Brown
Pennsylvania	Bob Casey (D)	R+2	Tossup	Lean D	Apr-23	Bob Casey	Dave McCormick
Wisconsin	Tammy Baldwin (D)	R+2	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-13	Tammy Baldwin	Eric Hovde
Michigan	OPEN -- (Stabinow (D))	EVEN	Tossup	Lean D	Aug-06	Elissa Slotkin	Mike Rogers
Ohio	Sherrod Brown (D)	R+6	Tossup	Tossup	Mar-19	Sherrod Brown	Bernie Moreno
Montana	Jon Tester (D)	R+11	Lean R	Lean R	Jun-04	Jon Tester	Tim Sheehy
Nebraska	Deb Fischer (R)	R+13	Lean R	Lean R	May-14	Dan Osborn (Ind)	Deb Fischer
Texas	Ted Cruz (R)	R+5	Lean R	Likely R	Mar-05	Colin Allred	Ted Cruz

COMPETITIVE HOUSE RACES

State	District	Incumbent	Partisan Lean	Party in Power	Cook Rating	Primary Date	Dem Candidate	$ Raised (Dem)	Rep Candidate	$ Raised (Rep)	Fundraising Target
Alaska	AK-00	Mary Peltola	R+8	D	Tossup	Aug-20	Mary Peltola	$11,383,692	Multiple	N/A
Arizona	AZ-01	David Schweikert	R+2	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Amish Shah	$5,499,151	David Schweikert	$3,806,313	Yes
Arizona	AZ-06	Juan Ciscomani	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jul-30	Kirsten Engel	$7,713,062	Juan Ciscomani	$6,281,198
California	CA-47	OPEN (Porter)	D+3	D	Lean D	Mar-5	David Min	$6,121,731	Scott Baugh	$4,134,243	Yes
California	CA-13	John Duarte	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Adam Gray	$5,416,262	John Duarte	$4,147,092	Yes
California	CA-22	David Valadao	D+5	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Rudy Salas	$5,772,500	David Valadao	$4,605,340	Yes
California	CA-27	Mike Garcia	D+4	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	George Whitesides	$9,258,624	Mike Garcia	$5,978,261
California	CA-41	Ken Calvert	R+3	R	Toss Up	Mar-5	Will Rollins	$11,510,839	Ken Calvert	$7,531,776
California	CA-45	Michelle Steel	D+2	R	Tossup	Mar-5	Derek Tran	$5,000,888	Michelle Steel	$9,441,899
Colorado	CO-08	Yadira Caraveo	EVEN	D	Toss Up	Jun-25	Yadira Caraveo	$7,303,139	Gabe Evans	$2,297,545
Colorado	CO-03	OPEN (Boebert)	R+7	R	Likely R	Jun-25	Adam Frisch	$16,502,296	Jeff Hurd	$2,410,147
Connecticut	CT-05	Jahana Hayes	D+3	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Jahana Hayes	$3,966,896	George Logan	$2,633,764
Illinois	IL-17	Eric Sorensen	D+2	D	Likely D	Mar-19	Eric Sorensen	$4,721,699	Joseph McGraw	$1,385,103
Indiana	IN-01	Frank Mrvan	D+3	D	Likely D	May-7	Frank Mrvan	$3,055,858	Randy Niemeyer	$1,024,067
Iowa	IA-03	Zach Nunn	R+3	R	Toss Up	Jun-4	Lanon Baccam	$4,826,753	Zach Nunn	$5,227,097
Maine	ME-02	Jared Golden	R+6	D	Toss Up	Jun-11	Jared Golden	$7,062,983	Austin Theriault	$3,209,611
Michigan	MI-07	OPEN (Slotkin)	R+2	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Curtis Hertel	$7,045,643	Tom Barrett	$4,622,111
Michigan	MI-08	OPEN (Kildee)	R+1	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Kristen McDonald Rivet	$5,255,715	Paul Junge	$5,114,278
Michigan	MI-10	John James	R+3	R	Lean R	Aug-6	Carl Marlinga	$2,596,072	John James	$8,287,451
Minnesota	MN-02	Angie Craig	D+1	D	Lean D	Aug-13	Angie Craig	$7,852,933	Joe Teirab	$2,966,229
Nebraska	NE-02	Don Bacon	EVEN	R	Tossup	May-14	Tony Vargas	$6,746,766	Don Bacon	$5,944,820
Nevada	NV-03	Susie Lee	D+1	D	Lean D	Jun-11	Susie Lee	$5,667,750	Drew Johnson	$1,296,245
New Jersey	NJ-07	Thomas Kean	R+1	R	Lean R	Jun-4	Sue Altman	$5,638,730	Thomas Kean	$5,558,101
New Mexico	NM-02	Gabe Vasquez	D+1	D	Toss Up	Jun-4	Gabe Vasquez	$6,483,548	Yvette Herrell	$3,958,577
New York	NY-18	Pat Ryan	D+2	D	Lean D	Jun-25	Pat Ryan	$7,543,210	Alison Esposito	$2,176,423
New York	NY-22	Brandon Williams	D+3	R	Lean D	Jun-25	John Mannion	$3,555,502	Brandon Williams	$3,938,363
New York	NY-04	Anthony DEsposito	D+5	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Laura Gillen	$6,127,580	Anthony DEsposito	$4,419,902
New York	NY-17	Mike Lawler	D+3	R	Lean R	Jun-25	Mondaire Jones	$9,057,157	Mike Lawler	$7,777,943
New York	NY-19	Marc Molinaro	R+1	R	Toss Up	Jun-25	Josh Riley	$8,760,534	Marc Molinaro	$5,119,951
North Carolina	NC-01	Don Davis	R+1	D	Toss Up	Mar-5	Don Davis	$5,599,492	Laurie Buckhout	$4,279,685
Ohio	OH-09	Marcy Kaptur	R+3	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Marcy Kaptur	$4,483,047	Derek Merrin	$1,480,664
Ohio	OH-13	Emilia Sykes	R+1	D	Lean D	Mar-19	Emilia Sykes	$4,949,666	Kevin Coughlin	$1,443,635
Oregon	OR-06	Andrea Salinas	D+4	D	Lean D	May-21	Andrea Salinas	$5,007,770	Mike Erickson	$544,612
Oregon	OR-05	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	D+2	R	Tossup	May-21	Janelle Bynum	$6,436,776	Lori Chavez-DeRemer	$5,698,142
Pennsylvania	PA-17	Chris Deluzio	EVEN	D	Lean D	Apr-23	Chris Deluzio	$4,700,672	Rob Mercuri	$1,681,625
Pennsylvania	PA-07	Susan Wild	R+2	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Susan Wild	$8,160,815	Ryan MacKenzie	$1,507,653
Pennsylvania	PA-08	Matt Cartwright	R+4	D	Toss Up	Apr-23	Matt Cartwright	$8,124,143	Robert Bresnahan	$4,124,363
Pennsylvania	PA-10	Scott Perry	R+5	R	Toss Up	Apr-23	Janelle Stelson	$5,379,810	Scott Perry	$3,862,884
Texas	TX-34	Vicente Gonzalez	D+9	D	Lean D	May-28	Vicente Gonzalez	$2,853,782	Mayra Flores	$6,306,400
Virginia	VA-07	OPEN (Spanberger)	D+1	D	Tossup	Jun-18	Eugene Vindman	$15,686,040	Derrick Anderson	$2,851,582
Virginia	VA-02	Jen Kiggans	R+2	R	Lean R	Jun-18	Missy Cotter Smasal	$2,784,150	Jen Kiggans	$5,969,764
Washington	WA-03	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	R+5	D	Toss Up	Aug-6	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez	$10,699,161	Joe Kent	$2,311,352
Wisconsin	WI-03	Derrick Van Orden	R+4	R	Lean R	Aug-13	Rebecca Cooke	$5,300,456	Derrick Van Orden	$6,627,347

U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin won her 2018 race by more than 10 percentage points in 2018. But this year, the Cook Political Report rates the race as a Tossup. Republicans are angling to oust Baldwin, and has heavily invested in the race.

Baldwin ia running against Republican Eric Hovde, a banker from California whose only political experience was a failed Republican primary run for the same seat 12 years ago. The GOP has been targeting Baldwin’s same-sex partner. CNN has noted, “The Wisconsin Senate race has devolved into one of the most personal and nastiest affairs in the country.” Baldwin has garnered support not just from Democrats but from independent voters throughout the state due to her reputation as a consensus builder.

WI-03, now held by a one-term Republican, is flippable; the district is rated Lean R. Small business owner and non-profit leader Rebecca Cooke bested two other candidates in the Democratic primary. Prior to the election of 2022, the district was represented by a moderate Democrat.

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