Key Races in 2022

The Together We Elect strategic analysis team identifies top Senate and House races that will determine which party controls Congress.  We only pick districts we think your support can make a real difference.  We prioritize races by both their potential win-ability (no lost causes please) as well as potential  marginal impact (no shoe-ins either). Criteria used in selecting races include:

  • Partisan lean of the district (post-redistricting) and trends in partisanship from 2012 – 2020
  • Incumbency
  • Congressional Election results in prior cycles
  • Money raised
  • Candidate Experience and Endorsements

The map below shows key states. Orange states have at least one key race. Darker orange indicates states with three or more key races.  Check out the tables below the map for details about each race.

Interactive Map

AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY DC

Key Senate Races

Of the 33 Senate races this cycle, there are just nine of them that are competitive: four Democratic holds and five potential Republican flips.  There are two other races that are often mentioned: Iowa and Missouri that look like pretty solid Republican holds at this point.

StateIncumbentPVICook RatingSabato RatingDem CandidateRep Candidate
2-AugArizonaMark Kelly (D)R+2TossupTossupMark Kelly  ($54,141,015)Blake Masters ($5,074,424)
24-MayGeorgiaRaphael Warnock (D)R+3TossupTossupRaphael Warnock ($84,914,584)Herschel Walker ($20,233,156)
14-JunNevadaCatherine Cortez Masto (D)EVENTossupTossupCatherine Cortez Masto ($18,245,498)Adam Laxalt ($5,506,106)
13-SepNew HampshireMaggie Hassan (D)EVENLean DLean DMaggie Hassan ($15,978,865)Don Bolduc
17-MayPennsylvaniaOpen (R)R+2Lean DTossupJohn Fetterman ($15,099,876)Mehmet Oz ($19,369,709)
9-AugWisconsinRon Johnson (R)R+2TossupLean RMandela Barnes ($4,642,453)Ron Johnson ($10,177,730)
17-MayNorth CarolinaOpen (R)EVENLean RLean RCheri Beasley ($8,635,735)Theodore P Budd ($11,649,582)
3-MayOhioOpen (R)R+6Lean RLean RTimothy Ryan ($11,833,332)J D Vance ($13,515,441)
23-AugFloridaMarco Rubio (R)R+3Lean RLikely RVal Demings ($30,386,818)Marco Rubio ($23,537,885)

* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate

** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)

Key House Races

The current House breakdown is 220 Democrats vs 212 Republicans (Three vacancies – 2 D, 1 R). Of the 220 current Democratic members, 24 are retiring and 11 of which are in vulnerable districts. By comparison, just 11 House Republicans are retiring and none of them sit in competitive districts.  Vulnerable seats exist all over the country and many states which didn’t receive much attention in 2020 will need focus in 2022: California, New York, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Virginia to name a few.

StateDistrictIncumbentPVICook RatingDem CandidateRep CandidateCanvassing
AlaskaAKALMary Peltola (Special Election)R+8TossupTossupMary PeltolaMary PeltolaSarah Palin
ArizonaAZ01David Schweikert (R)R+2TossupLean R2-AugJevin D Hodge ($706,318)David S. Schweikert ($645,690)
ArizonaAZ02Tom O'Halleran (D)R+6Lean RLean RTom O'HalleranEli Crane (R)
ArizonaAZ06Open (D)R+3Lean RLean R2-AugKirsten Engel ($1,041,479)Juan Ciscomani ($1,658,991)
CaliforniaCA09Josh Harder (D)D+5Lean DLean D7-JunJosh Harder ($4,233,777)Thomas Patti ($498,400)CA09 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA13Open (D)D+4TossupTossup7-JunAdam C. Gray ($664,425)John S Duarte ($234,450)
CaliforniaCA22David Valadao (R)D+5TossupTossup7-JunRudy Salas ($460,158)David Valadao ($1,752,035)CA22 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA27Mike Garcia (R)D+4TossupTossup7-JunChristy Smith ($830,862)Michael Garcia ($3,682,830)CA27 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA41Ken Calvert (R)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunWill RollinsKen Calvert
CaliforniaCA45Michelle Steel (R)D+2Lean RLean R7-JunJay Chen ($1,964,097)Michelle Steel ($2,744,333)CA45 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA47Katie Porter (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunKatie Porter ($13,268,126)Scott Baugh ($1,368,313)CA47 CANVASSING
CaliforniaCA49Mike Levin (D)D+3Lean DLean D7-JunMike Levin ($2,594,411)Brian L Maryott ($774,200)CA49 CANVASSING
ColoradoCO08New Seat (N)EVENTossupLean R28-JunYadira Caraveo ($567,794)Barbara Kirkmeyer ($291,808)
ConnecticutCT05Jahana Hayes (D)D+3Lean DLean D9-AugJahana Hayes ($1,112,088)George S Logan ($375,091)CT05 CANVASSING
IowaIA03Cindy Axne (D)R+3Lean RLean R7-JunCindy AxneZach Nunn ($695,573)IA03 CANVASSING
IllinoisIL13Open (N)D+3Lean DLean D28-JunNikki Budzinski ($1,438,783)Regan Deering ($113,496)IL13 CANVASSING
IllinoisIL17Open (D)D+2TossupTossup28-JunEric Sorensen ($307,547)Esther Joy King ($2,299,211)IL17 CANVASSING
IndianaIN01Frank J. Mrvan (D)D+3TossupTossup3-MayFrank J Mrvan ($640,557)Jennifer-Ruth Green ($346,964)IN01 CANVASSING
KansasKS03Sharice Davids (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugSharice Davids ($3,513,158)Amanda Adkins ($1,767,432)KS03 CANVASSING
MaineME02Jared Golden (D)R+6TossupTossup14-JunJared Golden ($2,705,743)Bruce Lee Poliquin ($2,016,947)
MichiganMI03Peter Meijer (R)D+1Lean DLean D2-AugHillary ScholtenJohn Gibbs
MichiganMI07Elissa Slotkin (D)R+2TossupTossup2-AugElissa Slotkin ($4,756,462)Thomas More Barrett ($1,045,254)
MichiganMI08Dan Kildee (D)R+1TossupTossup2-AugDaniel Kildee ($2,192,936)Paul Junge ($207,097)
MinnesotaMN02Angie Craig (D)D+1TossupTossup9-AugAngie Craig ($3,613,413)Tyler Kistner ($1,553,556)
North CarolinaNC01Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D17-MayDon Davis ($450,078)Sandy Smith ($789,108)

NC01 CANVASSING

North CarolinaNC13Open (R)R+2TossupLean R17-MayWiley Nickel ($466,242)Robert Hines ($1,636,468)

NC13 CANVASSING

New HampshireNH01Chris Pappas (D)EVENTossupTossup13-SepChris PappasKaroline LeavittNH01 CANVASSING
New HampshireNH02Annie Kuster (D)D+2Lean DLean D13-SepAnnie KusterBob Burns NH02 CANVASSING
New JerseyNJ07Tom Malinowski (D)R+1Lean RLean R7-JunTom Malinowski ($4,555,639)Thomas H. Kean ($1,844,184)

NJ07 CANVASSING

New MexicoNM02Yvette Herrell (R)D+1TossupTossup7-JunGabriel Vasquez ($588,777)Stella Yvette Herrell ($2,397,713)
NevadaNV01Dina Titus (D)D+3TossupLean D14-Jun Dina Titus ($1,030,454)Mark Robertson ($415,107)
NevadaNV03Susie Lee (D)D+1TossupTossup14-JunSusie Lee ($2,927,013)April Becker ($1,009,569)
NevadaNV04Steven Horsford (D)D+3TossupLean D14-JunSteve Horsford ($2,290,819)Samuel James Peters ($654,592)
New YorkNY01Open (R)R+3Lean RLean R23-AugBridget Fleming/key_candidates/bridget-fleming/Nicholas LaLotaNY01 CANVASSING
New YorkNY03Open (D)D+2Lean DLean D23-AugRobert ZimmermanNot available yetGeorge SantosNY03 CANVASSING
New YorkNY17Sean Patrick Maloney (D)D+3Lean DLean D23-AugSean Patrick Maloney/key_candidates/sean-patrick-maloney/Michael LawlerNY17 CANVASSING
New YorkNY18Open (D)D+1Lean DLean D23-AugPat RyanColin SchmittNY18 CANVASSING
New YorkNY19Pat Ryan (D) (special election)EVENTossupTossup23-AugJosh RileyMarc MolinaroNY19 CANVASSING
New YorkNY22Open (R)D+1TossupTossup23-AugFrancis ConoleBrandon WilliamsNY 22 CANVASSING
OhioOH01Steve Chabot (R)D+2TossupTossup3-MayGreg Landsman ($575,540)Steve Chabot ($881,071)

OH01 CANVASSING

OhioOH09Marcy Kaptur (D)R+3Lean DTossup3-MayMarcy Kaptur ($1,051,851)J R Majewski ($418,741)

OH09 CANVASSING

OhioOH13Open (D)R+1TossupTossup3-MayEmilia Sykes ($402,292)Madison Gesiotto Gilbert ($409,631)

OH13 CANVASSING

OregonOR05Open (D)D+2TossupTossup17-MayJamie Mcleod-Skinner ($935,656)Lori Chavez-Deremer ($355,225)

OR05 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA07Susan Wild (D)R+2Lean RTossup17-MaySusan Wild ($3,006,083)Lisa Scheller ($1,189,912)

PA07 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA08Matt Cartwright (D)R+4TossupTossup17-MayMatt Cartwright ($2,546,102)Jim Bognet ($713,988)

PA08 CANVASSING

PennsylvaniaPA17Open (D)EVENTossupTossup17-MayChris Deluzio ($446,030)/key_candidates/chris-deluzio/Jeremy Shaffer ($175,352)

PA17 CANVASSING

Rhode IslandRI02Open (D)D+4TossupLean D13-SepSeth MagazinerAllen Fung

RI02 CANVASSING

TexasTX28Henry Cuellar (D)D+3TossupTossup24-MayHenry Cuellar ($3,832,815)Cassandra Garcia ($376,975)
TexasTX34Merged Seat (D)D+9Lean DLean D24-MayVicente Gonzalez ($1,971,149)Mayra Nohemi Flores ($402,736)
VirginiaVA02Elaine Luria (D)R+2TossupTossup21-JunElaine Luria ($3,806,720)Jennifer Kiggans ($1,646,888)

VA02 CANVASSING

VirginiaVA07Abigail Spanberger (D)D+1Lean DLean D21-JunAbigail Spanberger ($4,246,473)Yesli Vega ($356,105)

VA07 CANVASSING

WashingtonWA08Kim Schrier (D)D+1TossupTossup2-AugKim Schrier ($4,136,518)Matt Larkin ($398,614)

WA08 CANVASSING

WisconsinWI03Open (D)R+4Lean RLean R9-AugDerrick Van Orden

* (I) — Incumbent is presumed general election candidate

** — Presumed winner (non competitive primary)

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